Aberafan Porthcawl: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Aberafan Porthcawl: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Stephen Kinnock  (LAB)
County/Area:West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:76,517
Turnout:64.2%
Implied Majority 2019:9,096

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB24,72050.3%
CON11,59523.6%
Reform3,7507.6%
Plaid3,3146.7%
Green2,7685.6%
LIB1,5463.1%
OTH1,4623.0%
LAB Majority13,12526.7%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
97%
CON
3%
Reform
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Aberafan Porthcawl : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Aberafan Porthcawl constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position13° Left8° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position1° Lib2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity23%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born97%94%87%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC41%46%51%
Average Age50.349.548.3
ABC1 Class41%48%54%
Average House Price£172,222£194,381£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Aberafan Porthcawl: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Aberafan Porthcawl

The new seat of Aberafan Porthcawl is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Aberafan PorthcawlActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberavon4,024AberavonLABLAB3301,1529828614637301202,505
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry West2,021AberavonLABLAB1378321612054650331,257
Neath Port TalbotCymmer1,999AberavonLABLAB1357871513055410831,246
Neath Port TalbotGlyncorrwg787AberavonLABLAB5729512582520024491
Neath Port TalbotGwynfi874AberavonLABLAB5632910562629039545
Neath Port TalbotSandfields West4,888AberavonLABLAB3671,6735933714333801253,042
Neath Port TalbotBaglan5,351AberavonLABLAB5711,7895331716332801103,331
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry East2,135AberavonLABLAB1767883113672640631,330
Neath Port TalbotBryn and Cwmavon5,189AberavonLABLAB4631,775493211643790793,230
Neath Port TalbotMargam2,295AberavonLABLAB3787032112169920441,428
Neath Port TalbotPort Talbot4,316AberavonLABLAB3241,685512401311760792,686
Neath Port TalbotSandfields East5,008AberavonLABLAB4021,8424131714824601223,118
Neath Port TalbotTai-bach3,621AberavonLABLAB2811,3744222210810901192,255
BridgendCefn Glas1,359BridgendLABLAB30543625454733015906
BridgendCornelly5,356BridgendLABLAB1,0631,851911781981340593,574
BridgendLlangewydd and Brynhyfryd1,877BridgendLABLAB3026161026285570271,251
BridgendNewton3,033BridgendCONCON94056516695132800442,022
BridgendNottage2,739BridgendCONCON8336326794101680321,827
BridgendPorthcawl East Central2,579BridgendLABLAB5758094790101710291,722
BridgendPorthcawl West Central2,965BridgendCONCON8607397091117660351,978
BridgendPyle5,542BridgendLABLAB8732,004781741893220603,700
BridgendRest Bay1,989BridgendCONCON6234214764109400231,327
BridgendBryntirion, Laleston and Merthyr Mawr6,570BridgendCONLAB1,5441,6203571963871830964,383
 Total76,517 LABLAB11,59524,7171,5483,7502,7703,31401,46049,154

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Aberafan Porthcawl if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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