Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:David Duguid  (CON)
County/Area:Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:71,236
Implied Turnout 2019:64.8%
Predicted Turnout:68.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON21,72147.1%23.8%
SNP20,05343.5%36.2%
LIB2,2204.8%4.5%
LAB2,0634.5%25.6%
OTH820.2%0.0%
Reform00.0%9.8%
CON Majority1,6683.6%10.6%
NAT Maj

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
CON
11%
SNP
69%
LIB
0%
LAB
19%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Aberdeenshire North and Moray East constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2024SNPLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Economic Position14° Left23° Left
National Position15° Glo
Social Position6° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %54%38%52%
Average Age50.348.649.5
Good Education27%36%49%
Employed67%64%58%
Homeowner67%62%63%
Car owner78%69%77%
Married52%45%45%
Ethnic White99%96%83%
Christian49%54%50%
ABC1 Class35%50%56%
Gross Household Income£28,209£31,060£42,397
Deprivation63%60%52%
Average House Price£151,518£174,274£313,528

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East ranks #299 for "Leave", #561 for "Economic Right Position", #410 for "National Position" and #520 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

The new seat of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
AberdeenshireBanff and District8,748Banff and BuchanCONSNP
AberdeenshireTroup7,329Banff and BuchanCONSNP
AberdeenshireFraserburgh and District10,669Banff and BuchanSNPSNP
AberdeenshireCentral Buchan6,636Banff and BuchanCONSNP
AberdeenshirePeterhead North and Rattray10,650Banff and BuchanCONSNP
AberdeenshirePeterhead South and Cruden8,686Banff and BuchanCONSNP
MorayKeith and Cullen7,974MoraySNPSNP
MorayBuckie7,625MoraySNPSNP
MorayFochabers Lhanbryde2,919MorayCONSNP
 Total71,236 CONSNP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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