Ayrshire North and Arran: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Ayrshire North and Arran: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Patricia Gibson  (SNP)
County/Area:Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:73,534
Turnout:65.5%
Implied Majority 2019:8,519

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP24,70951.3%
CON11,24523.4%
LAB7,45315.5%
Green2,0044.2%
LIB1,3332.8%
OTH1,2302.6%
Reform1830.4%
NAT Majority13,46428.0%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
97%
CON
3%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Ayrshire North and Arran : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ayrshire North and Arran constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position26° Left23° Left
National Position9° Glo15° Glo
Social Position9° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %43%38%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health49%52%48%
UK Born97%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job45%49%51%
High SEC51%55%51%
Average Age51.148.648.3
ABC1 Class42%50%54%
Average House Price£117,691£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ayrshire North and Arran: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Ayrshire North and Arran

The new seat of Ayrshire North and Arran is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Ayrshire North and ArranActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North AyrshireKilwinning10,997Ayrshire North and ArranSNPSNP1,3891,452214283833,55001867,202
North AyrshireStevenston9,349Ayrshire North and ArranSNPSNP8961,442140232233,24801526,124
North AyrshireArdrossan and Arran9,680Ayrshire North and ArranSNPSNP1,579684194252593,43401656,340
North AyrshireDalry and West Kilbride9,991Ayrshire North and ArranSNPSNP2,044574184252713,27701686,543
North AyrshireKilbirnie and Beith10,328Ayrshire North and ArranSNPSNP1,1681,220179262603,74001716,764
North AyrshireNorth Coast and Cumbraes13,458Ayrshire North and ArranSNPSNP3,102686263343674,13302288,813
North AyrshireSaltcoats9,731Ayrshire North and ArranSNPSNP1,0671,396158242423,32701606,374
 Total73,534 SNPSNP11,2457,4541,3321852,00524,70901,23048,160

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Ayrshire North and Arran if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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