Barrow and Furness: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Barrow and Furness: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Simon Fell  (CON)
County/Area:Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:76,191
Turnout:66.9%
Implied Majority 2019:7,912

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON23,08645.3%
LAB18,17035.6%
LIB4,2378.3%
Green2,4374.8%
OTH2,0214.0%
Reform1,0412.0%
CON Majority4,9169.6%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
CON
73%
LAB
27%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Barrow and Furness : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Barrow and Furness constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right4° Left
National Position7° Nat1° Nat
Social Position5° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born97%92%87%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job45%49%51%
High SEC46%48%51%
Average Age51.648.548.3
ABC1 Class44%50%54%
Average House Price£181,331£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Barrow and Furness: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Barrow and Furness

The new seat of Barrow and Furness is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Barrow and FurnessActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow Island1,667Barrow and FurnessLABLAB40356415284700381,095
Barrow-in-FurnessCentral2,820Barrow and FurnessLABLAB65598824467400631,850
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton North5,043Barrow and FurnessCONCON1,8321,0996075129001153,310
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton South4,837Barrow and FurnessCONCON1,5201,2705984129001133,175
Barrow-in-FurnessHawcoat4,231Barrow and FurnessCONCON1,7017406862106001002,777
Barrow-in-FurnessHindpool4,374Barrow and FurnessLABLAB1,0021,539446811900992,871
Barrow-in-FurnessNewbarns4,736Barrow and FurnessCONCON1,6241,0957575125001133,107
Barrow-in-FurnessOrmsgill4,457Barrow and FurnessLABLAB1,0151,5427073120001062,926
Barrow-in-FurnessParkside4,322Barrow and FurnessCONLAB1,1841,2738067128001052,837
Barrow-in-FurnessRisedale4,720Barrow and FurnessLABLAB1,0821,6325585133001103,097
Barrow-in-FurnessRoosecote4,047Barrow and FurnessCONCON1,510815586810800962,655
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney North4,442Barrow and FurnessLABLAB1,1411,4046781118001072,918
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney South4,225Barrow and FurnessCONLAB1,1741,2406775115001022,773
South LakelandCartmel3,310Westmorland and LonsdaleLIBLIB1,063681,13828131001482,576
South LakelandFurness Peninsula4,755Barrow and FurnessCONCON1,77372822630229001353,121
South LakelandGrange4,796Westmorland and LonsdaleLIBLIB1,4351251,73235188002143,729
South LakelandUlverston East4,669Barrow and FurnessCONLAB1,2451,25320131206001293,065
South LakelandUlverston West4,740Barrow and FurnessCONCON1,72679419931231001303,111
 Total76,191 CONCON23,08518,1694,2381,0422,436002,02350,993

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Barrow and Furness if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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