Basildon South and East Thurrock: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Basildon South and East Thurrock: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Stephen Metcalfe  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:73,037
Implied Turnout 2019:60.7%
Predicted Turnout:57.6%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON29,43666.4%27.8%
LAB9,94122.4%34.1%
MIN2,9556.7%0.0%
LIB1,8844.2%4.9%
OTH930.2%3.1%
Green540.1%4.7%
Reform00.0%25.4%
CON Majority19,49543.9%6.3%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Chance of winning
CON
27%
LAB
56%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
18%

Basildon South and East Thurrock : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Basildon South and East Thurrock constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2024ReformCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right9° Right
National Position22° Nat7° Nat
Social Position11° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %73%56%52%
Average Age49.350.549.5
Good Education39%48%49%
Employed60%59%58%
Homeowner68%67%63%
Car owner83%84%77%
Married45%47%45%
Ethnic White87%86%83%
Christian51%50%50%
ABC1 Class52%58%56%
Gross Household Income£42,179£45,686£42,397
Deprivation55%50%52%
Average House Price£322,387£352,365£313,528

Basildon South and East Thurrock ranks #4 for "Leave", #236 for "Economic Right Position", #6 for "National Position" and #19 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Basildon South and East Thurrock: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Basildon South and East Thurrock

The new seat of Basildon South and East Thurrock is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Basildon South and East ThurrockActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
ThurrockChadwell St Mary6,873ThurrockCONLAB
ThurrockCorringham and Fobbing4,412Basildon South and East ThurrockCONCON
ThurrockEast Tilbury4,966Basildon South and East ThurrockCONLAB
ThurrockOrsett4,889Basildon South and East ThurrockCONCON
ThurrockStanford East and Corringham Town6,412Basildon South and East ThurrockCONLAB
ThurrockStanford-le-Hope West5,326Basildon South and East ThurrockCONLAB
ThurrockThe Homesteads6,456Basildon South and East ThurrockCONCON
BasildonLangdon Hills10,253Basildon South and East ThurrockCONCON
BasildonNethermayne6,655Basildon South and East ThurrockCONLAB
BasildonPitsea South East7,559Basildon South and East ThurrockCONLAB
BasildonPitsea North West9,236Basildon South and East ThurrockCONLAB
 Total73,037 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Basildon South and East Thurrock if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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