Bedfordshire North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Bedfordshire North: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Richard Fuller  (CON)
County/Area:Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:76,467
Implied Turnout 2019:71.7%
Predicted Turnout:66.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON32,47759.2%34.9%
LAB11,15620.3%34.6%
LIB7,37413.5%9.6%
MIN2,1603.9%0.0%
Green1,6172.9%4.7%
OTH230.0%0.0%
Reform150.0%16.2%
CON Majority21,32138.9%0.3%
CON Maj

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Chance of winning
CON
50%
LAB
48%
LIB
0%
MIN
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
2%

Bedfordshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bedfordshire North constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right9° Right
National Position7° Nat7° Nat
Social Position4° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%56%52%
Average Age50.650.549.5
Good Education54%48%49%
Employed63%59%58%
Homeowner75%67%63%
Car owner91%84%77%
Married51%47%45%
Ethnic White90%86%83%
Christian51%50%50%
ABC1 Class66%58%56%
Gross Household Income£50,688£45,686£42,397
Deprivation43%50%52%
Average House Price£343,325£352,365£313,528

Bedfordshire North ranks #317 for "Leave", #47 for "Economic Right Position", #225 for "National Position" and #249 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Bedfordshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Bedfordshire North

The new seat of Bedfordshire North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Bedfordshire NorthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade East6,062Bedfordshire North EastCONLAB
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade West9,822Bedfordshire North EastCONLAB
Central BedfordshireNorthill1,520Bedfordshire MidCONCON
Central BedfordshireNorthill1,940Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
Central BedfordshirePotton6,251Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
Central BedfordshireSandy9,676Bedfordshire North EastCONLAB
BedfordBiddenham2,310Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
BedfordBrickhill865Bedfordshire North EastCONLAB
BedfordBromham2,007Bedfordshire MidCONCON
BedfordBromham3,829Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
BedfordClapham and Oakley5,456Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
BedfordGreat Barford2,817Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
BedfordGreat Denham2,881Bedfordshire North EastCONLAB
BedfordHarpur11BedfordCONLAB
BedfordHarrold3,147Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
BedfordKempston West722BedfordCONLAB
BedfordRenhold and Ravensden293BedfordCONLAB
BedfordRenhold and Ravensden1,781Bedfordshire North EastCONLAB
BedfordRiseley3,268Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
BedfordSharnbrook3,052Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
BedfordShortstown4,910Bedfordshire North EastCONLAB
BedfordWootton and Kempston Rural29BedfordCONLAB
BedfordWootton and Kempston Rural1,006Bedfordshire MidCONLAB
BedfordWyboston2,814Bedfordshire North EastCONCON
 Total76,469 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Bedfordshire North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Jun-2024 13:44, Py3L, sc306)