Belfast South and Mid Down: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Belfast South and Mid Down: Overview

Prediction: SDLP

Implied MP at 2019:Claire Hanna  (SDLP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,557
Turnout:66.4%
Implied Majority 2019:12,447

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SDLP24,78952.2%
DUP12,34226.0%
Alliance7,76716.3%
UUP1,7943.8%
OTH6041.3%
SF1200.3%
Green630.1%
MIN260.1%
LAB Majority12,44726.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SDLP
100%
DUP
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
SF
0%
Green
0%
MIN
0%

Belfast South and Mid Down : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast South and Mid Down constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %31%44%52%
British Identity35%40%29%
Good Health52%48%48%
UK Born88%93%87%
Good Education57%36%39%
Good Job62%47%51%
High SEC66%57%51%
Average Age44.047.248.3
ABC1 Class68%46%53%
Average House Price£200,443£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Belfast South and Mid Down: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Belfast South and Mid Down

The new seat of Belfast South and Mid Down is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Belfast South and Mid DownActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir3,195Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP651,099763211000242,162
BelfastBlackstaff4,210Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP951,536990192000362,849
BelfastCentral4,826Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP182,153752285000583,266
BelfastFinaghy3,404Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP831,306729174000112,303
BelfastMalone3,606Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP541,49136252900042,440
BelfastMusgrave3,551Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP531,452659211000282,403
BelfastOrmeau4,047Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP141,658352671000442,739
BelfastRavenhill3,261Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP661,195424497000252,207
BelfastRosetta3,867Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP731,542394592000162,617
BelfastStranmillis4,216Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP821,731659339000422,853
BelfastUpper Malone3,547Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP751,253745304000222,399
BelfastWindsor4,666Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP531,810781469000453,158
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,449Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP56919424237000211,657
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill2,556Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP59988384276000231,730
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East2,069Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP48782428124000181,400
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,425Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP58947395219000221,641
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,332Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP55894338271000191,577
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,484Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP51970335307000171,680
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda2,028Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP45751307252000171,372
BelfastCentral260Belfast WestSFSF0173326045267154
BelfastBelvoir334Lagan ValleyDUPDUP1010897201108200
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,295Lagan ValleyDUPDUP26864549475090111,376
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East546StrangfordDUPDUP2233126911014010306
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken95StrangfordAllianceAlliance261920230153
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,298StrangfordDUPDUP12116702401560361,287
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,990StrangfordDUPDUP26816660352246320391,676
 Total71,557 SDLPSDLP1,79424,78912,3427,767631202660447,505

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Belfast South and Mid Down if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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