Belfast South and Mid Down: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Belfast South and Mid Down: Overview

Prediction: SDLP

Implied MP at 2019:Claire Hanna  (SDLP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,557
Implied Turnout 2019:66.4%
Predicted Turnout:66.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SDLP24,78952.2%52.2%
DUP12,34226.0%26.0%
Alliance7,76716.3%16.4%
UUP1,7943.8%3.8%
OTH6041.3%1.2%
SF1200.3%0.3%
Green630.1%0.1%
MIN260.1%0.1%
SDLP Majority12,44726.2%26.2%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SDLP
96%
DUP
4%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
SF
0%
Green
0%
MIN
0%

Belfast South and Mid Down : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast South and Mid Down constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %31%44%52%
British Identity25%32%52%
Average Age45.049.349.5
Good Education68%48%49%
Employed57%56%58%
Homeowner59%69%63%
Car owner81%87%77%
Married37%46%45%
Ethnic White89%97%83%
Christian68%81%50%
ABC1 Class69%46%55%
Average House Price£200,443£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Belfast South and Mid Down: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Belfast South and Mid Down

The new seat of Belfast South and Mid Down is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Belfast South and Mid DownActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
BelfastBelvoir3,266Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastBelvoir336Lagan ValleySDLPSDLP
BelfastBlackstaff3,930Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastCentral4,503Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastCentral236Belfast WestSDLPSDLP
BelfastFinaghy3,481Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastMalone3,722Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastMusgrave3,669Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastOrmeau3,916Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastRavenhill3,267Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastRosetta3,953Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastStranmillis4,320Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastUpper Malone3,649Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
BelfastWindsor4,429Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,518Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill2,634Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East2,160Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East558StrangfordSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,493Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,317Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,410Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,560Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken94StrangfordSDLPSDLP
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,295StrangfordDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda2,087Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield3,040StrangfordDUPDUP
 Total71,843 SDLPSDLP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Belfast South and Mid Down if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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