Birmingham Ladywood: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Birmingham Ladywood: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Shabana Mahmood  (LAB)
County/Area:Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:78,301
Turnout:57.4%
Implied Majority 2019:32,318

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB36,60381.5%
CON3,1247.0%
LIB1,6993.8%
Green1,6153.6%
OTH8701.9%
Reform6561.5%
MIN3700.8%
LAB Majority33,47974.5%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
MIN
0%

Birmingham Ladywood : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Birmingham Ladywood constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position11° Left3° Right
National Position21° Glo7° Nat
Social Position2° Con6° Con
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %35%59%52%
British Identity49%29%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born60%89%87%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job47%48%51%
High SEC31%46%51%
Average Age38.248.648.3
ABC1 Class46%49%54%
Average House Price£193,406£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Birmingham Ladywood: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Birmingham Ladywood

The new seat of Birmingham Ladywood is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Birmingham LadywoodActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BirminghamAlum Rock15,714Birmingham Hodge HillLABLAB4977,958125144132001789,034
BirminghamBalsall Heath West782Birmingham EdgbastonLABLAB51362275230012480
BirminghamBalsall Heath West6,607Birmingham Hall GreenLABLAB1633,431187381140370524,355
BirminghamBordesley and Highgate617Birmingham Hodge HillLABLAB223018712006356
BirminghamBordesley and Highgate6,452Birmingham LadywoodLABLAB2472,9611404017600633,627
BirminghamBordesley Green1,749Birmingham Hodge HillLABLAB6686212202800171,005
BirminghamBordesley Green5,010Birmingham LadywoodLABLAB1852,327123339800492,815
BirminghamBordesley Green219Birmingham YardleyLABLAB2088436004125
BirminghamLadywood13,069Birmingham LadywoodLABLAB7085,384467126474001887,347
BirminghamNechells7,089Birmingham LadywoodLABLAB1853,458144539200553,987
BirminghamNewtown7,018Birmingham LadywoodLABLAB2433,40696469500593,945
BirminghamSoho and Jewellery Quarter13,975Birmingham LadywoodLABLAB7366,064367141365001867,859
 Total78,301 LABLAB3,12336,6021,7006561,615037086944,935

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Birmingham Ladywood if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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