Blackburn: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Blackburn: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Kate Hollern  (LAB)
County/Area:Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:75,489
Turnout:63.0%
Implied Majority 2019:17,413

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB30,15163.4%
CON9,95520.9%
Green2,3454.9%
OTH2,0804.4%
Reform2,0664.3%
LIB9952.1%
LAB Majority20,19642.4%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%

Blackburn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Blackburn constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position1° Left4° Left
National Position2° Nat1° Nat
Social Position14° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %55%54%52%
British Identity41%28%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born82%92%87%
Good Education30%37%39%
Good Job42%49%51%
High SEC39%48%51%
Average Age46.048.548.3
ABC1 Class39%50%54%
Average House Price£142,287£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Blackburn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Blackburn

The new seat of Blackburn is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: BlackburnActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Blackburn with DarwenAudley and Queen's Park5,951BlackburnLABLAB3122,94363110150001613,739
Blackburn with DarwenBastwell and Daisyfield5,679BlackburnLABLAB2582,952508412800953,567
Blackburn with DarwenBillinge and Beardwood5,904BlackburnLABLAB1,0772,027107107200001913,709
Blackburn with DarwenBlackburn Central5,526BlackburnLABLAB3962,64351101155001243,470
Blackburn with DarwenBlackburn South and Lower Darwen1,838BlackburnCONLAB45250232446000641,154
Blackburn with DarwenBlackburn South and Lower Darwen3,859Rossendale and DarwenCONCON1,51680157012600892,589
Blackburn with DarwenBlackburn South East5,558BlackburnLABLAB4612,22357355206001883,490
Blackburn with DarwenEwood5,585BlackburnLABLAB9881,95674142180001683,508
Blackburn with DarwenEwood397Rossendale and DarwenCONLAB1111294013009266
Blackburn with DarwenLittle Harwood and Whitebirk5,622BlackburnLABLAB3492,57052249172001393,531
Blackburn with DarwenLivesey with Pleasington6,213BlackburnCONCON1,7141,523105167201001923,902
Blackburn with DarwenMill Hill and Moorgate5,410BlackburnLABLAB6261,90096366216001933,397
Blackburn with DarwenRoe Lee6,196BlackburnLABLAB9712,306109131206001673,890
Blackburn with DarwenShear Brow and Corporation Park6,030BlackburnLABLAB3932,85776107182001703,785
Blackburn with DarwenWensley Fold5,721BlackburnLABLAB3312,81962103150001303,595
 Total75,489 LABLAB9,95530,1519952,0662,345002,08047,592

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Blackburn if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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