Blackburn: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Blackburn: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Kate Hollern  (LAB)
County/Area:Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:69,792
Implied Turnout 2019:62.8%
Predicted Turnout:48.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB28,66965.4%48.2%
CON10,33623.6%16.4%
Reform2,7106.2%11.7%
LIB1,0992.5%5.7%
Green7281.7%14.8%
OTH3060.7%3.2%
LAB Majority18,33341.8%31.8%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
LAB
98%
CON
2%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Blackburn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Blackburn constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position2° Left4° Left
National Position2° Nat1° Nat
Social Position15° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %55%54%52%
Average Age46.749.749.5
Good Education40%49%49%
Employed51%55%58%
Homeowner60%64%63%
Car owner72%76%77%
Married46%43%45%
Ethnic White48%86%83%
Christian33%55%50%
ABC1 Class42%53%56%
Gross Household Income£33,897£38,646£42,397
Deprivation62%53%52%
Average House Price£143,662£200,217£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Blackburn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Blackburn

The new seat of Blackburn is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: BlackburnActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Blackburn with DarwenAudley and Queen's Park5,951BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenBastwell and Daisyfield5,679BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenBillinge and Beardwood5,903BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenBlackburn Central5,526BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenBlackburn South East5,558BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenEwood5,587BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenEwood395Rossendale and DarwenLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenLittle Harwood and Whitebirk5,622BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenLivesey with Pleasington6,212BlackburnCONLAB
Blackburn with DarwenMill Hill and Moorgate5,410BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenRoe Lee6,196BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenShear Brow and Corporation Park6,030BlackburnLABLAB
Blackburn with DarwenWensley Fold5,720BlackburnLABLAB
 Total69,789 LABLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Blackburn if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc70)