Burnley and Bacup: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Burnley and Bacup: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Antony Higginbotham  (CON)
County/Area:Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:72,684
Turnout:62.1%
Implied Majority 2019:2,991

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON17,58638.9%
LAB17,25938.2%
OTH3,0816.8%
Green2,5615.7%
LIB2,4115.3%
Reform2,2605.0%
CON Majority3270.7%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
CON
50%
LAB
50%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%

Burnley and Bacup : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Burnley and Bacup constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left4° Left
National Position9° Nat1° Nat
Social Position6° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %67%54%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born93%92%87%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job42%49%51%
High SEC40%48%51%
Average Age48.648.548.3
ABC1 Class39%50%54%
Average House Price£126,417£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Burnley and Bacup: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Burnley and Bacup

The new seat of Burnley and Bacup is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Burnley and BacupActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BurnleyBank Hall3,815BurnleyLABLAB5761,30110091116001272,311
BurnleyBrunshaw4,710BurnleyLABLAB8931,299149139152002222,854
BurnleyCliviger with Worsthorne4,299BurnleyCONCON1,348477126312167001752,605
BurnleyCoal Clough with Deerplay3,888BurnleyCONCON873679309110141002422,354
BurnleyDaneshouse with Stoneyholme4,159BurnleyLABLAB4701,5998378118001722,520
BurnleyGannow4,090BurnleyCONCON1,026771155136153002372,478
BurnleyGawthorpe4,456BurnleyLABLAB8181,055126338175001882,700
BurnleyHapton with Park4,579BurnleyCONCON1,003805141418191002152,773
BurnleyQueensgate3,843BurnleyLABLAB5641,20717390126001692,329
BurnleyRosegrove with Lowerhouse4,741BurnleyCONLAB1,0201,146149147166002452,873
BurnleyRosehill with Burnley Wood4,387BurnleyCONCON905842362127173002502,659
BurnleyTrinity3,855BurnleyCONCON887832107127145002392,337
BurnleyWhittlefield with Ightenhill4,664BurnleyCONCON1,357732167147166002572,826
RossendaleFacit and Shawforth2,805Rossendale and DarwenCONCON1,0027003608900551,882
RossendaleGreensclough4,369Rossendale and DarwenCONCON1,5761,05371014400882,932
RossendaleHealey and Whitworth2,992Rossendale and DarwenCONCON99180546010800602,010
RossendaleIrwell4,176Rossendale and DarwenCONCON1,3981,13059013200832,802
RossendaleStacksteads2,856Rossendale and DarwenCONCON8808285209900581,917
 Total72,684 CONCON17,58717,2612,4112,2602,561003,08245,162

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Burnley and Bacup if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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