Cardiff South and Penarth: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Cardiff South and Penarth: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Stephen Doughty  (LAB)
County/Area:South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:73,492
Implied Turnout 2019:65.0%
Predicted Turnout:59.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB26,16054.7%56.0%
CON14,26329.8%18.2%
LIB3,1316.6%5.3%
Plaid1,8033.8%3.3%
Green1,2752.7%8.6%
Reform1,0012.1%8.2%
OTH1510.3%0.3%
LAB Majority11,89724.9%37.8%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
99%
CON
1%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%
OTH
0%

Cardiff South and Penarth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Cardiff South and Penarth constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position2° Left8° Left
National Position17° Glo
Social Position11° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %40%53%52%
Average Age42.851.149.5
Good Education65%49%49%
Employed52%53%58%
Homeowner50%67%63%
Car owner71%81%77%
Married32%44%45%
Ethnic White76%94%83%
Christian37%47%50%
ABC1 Class65%52%56%
Gross Household Income£39,733£36,386£42,397
Deprivation49%54%52%
Average House Price£260,287£193,404£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Cardiff South and Penarth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Cardiff South and Penarth

The new seat of Cardiff South and Penarth is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Cardiff South and PenarthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CardiffButetown8,649Cardiff South and PenarthLABLAB
CardiffCathays12,420Cardiff CentralLABLAB
CardiffGrangetown14,021Cardiff South and PenarthLABLAB
CardiffSplott8,819Cardiff South and PenarthLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganCornerswell4,120Cardiff South and PenarthLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganDinas Powys6,502Vale of GlamorganCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganLlandough1,559Cardiff South and PenarthCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganPlymouth4,542Cardiff South and PenarthCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganSt Augustine's5,490Cardiff South and PenarthLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganStanwell3,371Cardiff South and PenarthLABLAB
Vale of GlamorganSully3,996Cardiff South and PenarthCONLAB
Vale of GlamorganDinas Powys3Cardiff South and PenarthCONLAB
 Total73,492 LABLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Cardiff South and Penarth if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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