Chatham and Aylesford: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Chatham and Aylesford: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Tracey Crouch  (CON)
County/Area:Kent (South East)
Implied Turnout 2019:60.9%
Predicted Turnout:52.7%

CON Majority17,98639.8%0.7%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in South East.

Chance of winning

Chatham and Aylesford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Chatham and Aylesford constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right11° Right
National Position14° Nat3° Nat
Social Position7° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %65%52%52%
Average Age48.650.449.5
Good Education42%53%49%
Car owner83%84%77%
Ethnic White86%86%83%
ABC1 Class50%62%56%
Gross Household Income£44,832£50,167£42,397
Average House Price£281,042£409,816£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Chatham and Aylesford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Chatham and Aylesford

The new seat of Chatham and Aylesford is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Chatham and AylesfordActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
MedwayChatham Central and Brompton6,331Chatham and AylesfordCONLAB
MedwayFort Horsted38Chatham and AylesfordCONCON
MedwayFort Horsted3,309Rochester and StroodCONCON
MedwayFort Pitt4,071Chatham and AylesfordCONLAB
MedwayFort Pitt3,410Rochester and StroodCONLAB
MedwayHempstead and Wigmore24Chatham and AylesfordCONCON
MedwayLordswood and Walderslade11,079Chatham and AylesfordCONCON
MedwayLuton6,789Chatham and AylesfordCONLAB
MedwayPrinces Park6,607Chatham and AylesfordCONCON
MedwayRochester East and Warren Wood1,761Rochester and StroodCONLAB
MedwayWayfield and Weeds Wood6,850Chatham and AylesfordCONLAB
MedwayWayfield and Weeds Wood83Rochester and StroodCONLAB
Tonbridge and MallingAylesford North and North Downs6,314Chatham and AylesfordCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingLarkfield6,846Chatham and AylesfordCONCON
Tonbridge and MallingSnodland East and Ham Hill4,204Chatham and AylesfordCONLAB
Tonbridge and MallingSodland West and Holborough Lakes4,179Chatham and AylesfordCONLAB
Tonbridge and MallingWalderslade2,317Chatham and AylesfordCONCON
 Total74,212 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Chatham and Aylesford if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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