Cheshire South: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Cheshire South: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Edward Timpson  (CON)
County/Area:Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:70,724
Turnout:71.5%
Implied Majority 2019:16,326

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON26,06151.5%
LAB12,71625.1%
LIB6,11812.1%
Green3,1126.2%
OTH2,3474.6%
Reform2450.5%
CON Majority13,34526.4%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
CON
95%
LAB
5%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Cheshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Cheshire South constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position12° Right4° Left
National Position2° Nat1° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %49%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job58%49%51%
High SEC61%48%51%
Average Age51.948.548.3
ABC1 Class62%50%54%
Average House Price£327,614£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Cheshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Cheshire South

The new seat of Cheshire South is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Cheshire SouthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAudlem4,138EddisburyCONCON1,6653666160164001622,973
Cheshire EastBunbury4,131EddisburyCONCON1,6513816210170001462,969
Cheshire EastWrenbury4,496EddisburyCONCON2,0784144000169001713,232
Cheshire EastWybunbury4,493Crewe and NantwichCONCON2,1835265140115001073,022
Cheshire West and ChesterChristleton and Huntington6,971Chester, City ofCONCON2,3991,73530370308001855,000
Cheshire West and ChesterChristleton and Huntington1,622EddisburyCONCON64623014509200521,165
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon217Chester, City ofCONCON71581227006156
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon3,518EddisburyCONCON1,2933266390144001252,527
Cheshire West and ChesterHandbridge Park7,491Chester, City ofCONCON2,2512,19132263350001975,374
Cheshire West and ChesterLache3,958Chester, City ofLABLAB8311,60912052126001012,839
Cheshire West and ChesterMalpas3,731EddisburyCONCON1,7713942480127001402,680
Cheshire West and ChesterTarporley4,096EddisburyCONCON1,7264633570222001772,945
Cheshire West and ChesterTarvin and Kelsall7,368EddisburyCONCON2,8476451,1040416002845,296
Cheshire West and ChesterTattenhall3,865EddisburyCONCON1,7044153220214001232,778
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin9,702EddisburyCONCON2,7272,6318200451003456,974
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin927Weaver ValeLABLAB2193323816370026668
 Total70,724 CONCON26,06212,7166,1182433,112002,34750,598

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Cheshire South if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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