Chester North and Neston: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Chester North and Neston: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Chris Matheson  (LAB)
County/Area:Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:73,078
Turnout:71.2%
Implied Majority 2019:6,554

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB26,37350.7%
CON16,77832.3%
Green3,0195.8%
LIB2,7415.3%
OTH1,9153.7%
Reform1,1842.3%
LAB Majority9,59518.4%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
LAB
86%
CON
14%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Chester North and Neston : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Chester North and Neston constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position2° Right4° Left
National Position5° Glo1° Nat
Social Position3° Lib2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %46%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born93%92%87%
Good Education47%37%39%
Good Job55%49%51%
High SEC55%48%51%
Average Age48.748.548.3
ABC1 Class60%50%54%
Average House Price£264,571£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Chester North and Neston: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Chester North and Neston

The new seat of Chester North and Neston is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Chester North and NestonActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterBlacon10,119Chester, City ofLABLAB1,6264,703169142377002417,258
Cheshire West and ChesterChester City and the Garden Quarter13,533Chester, City ofLABLAB2,4825,557562116648003459,710
Cheshire West and ChesterGreat Boughton8,825Chester, City ofLABLAB2,2892,813384185414002456,330
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston4,271Ellesmere Port and NestonCONLAB1,1831,26814989158001122,959
Cheshire West and ChesterNeston4,299Ellesmere Port and NestonLABLAB9281,6308788140001062,979
Cheshire West and ChesterNewton and Hoole11,617Chester, City ofLABLAB2,0624,580705132530003258,334
Cheshire West and ChesterParkgate4,144Ellesmere Port and NestonCONLAB1,1131,18315493218001112,872
Cheshire West and ChesterSaughall and Mollington4,333Chester, City ofCONCON1,5091,14816446131001103,108
Cheshire West and ChesterUpton7,684Chester, City ofLABLAB1,9852,548290211260002185,512
Cheshire West and ChesterWillaston and Thornton4,253Ellesmere Port and NestonCONCON1,6019437781144001032,949
 Total73,078 LABLAB16,77826,3732,7411,1833,020001,91652,011

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Chester North and Neston if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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