Clwyd: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Clwyd: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:David Jones  (CON)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:76,788
Turnout:67.8%
Implied Majority 2019:4,213

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB21,35441.0%
CON21,30740.9%
Plaid3,7797.3%
Green2,0163.9%
LIB1,5763.0%
Reform1,1622.2%
OTH8641.7%
LAB Majority470.1%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
49%
CON
50%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
OTH
0%

Clwyd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Clwyd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position1° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education34%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age51.949.548.3
ABC1 Class44%48%54%
Average House Price£176,113£194,381£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Clwyd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Clwyd

The new seat of Clwyd is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: ClwydActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,957Clwyd WestLABLAB52468130550520221,364
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,621Clwyd WestCONCON516406294421140181,129
ConwyColwyn3,369Clwyd WestCONLAB868924190121171860502,347
ConwyEirias2,797Clwyd WestCONCON839770778791420341,949
ConwyGele3,992Clwyd WestCONCON1,44188066101042350442,780
ConwyGlyn3,084Clwyd WestLABLAB5901,023698843400362,150
ConwyKinmel Bay4,601Clwyd WestCONCON1,5421,23667121171790503,203
ConwyLlanddulas1,351Clwyd WestCONCON4543383043763016942
ConwyLlansannan1,493Clwyd WestCONCON375346224382400161,041
ConwyLlysfaen1,904Clwyd WestCONCON67945127549940211,326
ConwyPentre Mawr2,857Clwyd WestCONCON989710658781070341,991
ConwyRhiw4,985Clwyd WestCONCON1,6201,136286171741640753,472
ConwyTowyn1,843Clwyd WestCONCON65247928547530201,284
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,319Clwyd WestCONCON32629524335220015918
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,828Clwyd WestCONCON580462405501160211,274
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,494Clwyd WestCONCON375334264392450171,040
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,633Vale of ClwydCONCON493385204939720171,075
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,481Vale of ClwydCONLAB331398245436116016975
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,527Vale of ClwydCONCON89583155133862800372,317
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,294Vale of ClwydLABLAB4627032979551560231,507
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,950Vale of ClwydCONCON1,0115733386701350301,938
DenbighshireRhyl East3,740Vale of ClwydCONLAB1,0281,138499590200382,458
DenbighshireRhyl South2,911Vale of ClwydCONLAB779884387970330301,913
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,333Vale of ClwydLABLAB1,4702,0471071721571410674,161
DenbighshireRhyl South West3,780Vale of ClwydLABLAB5221,5903898881090382,483
DenbighshireRhyl West3,325Vale of ClwydLABLAB4941,444237875390322,185
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,491Vale of ClwydCONCON53727055364318019978
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,306Vale of ClwydCONCON43330514373125013858
DenbighshireTrefnant1,522Vale of ClwydCONCON48231415533585015999
 Total76,788 CONLAB21,30721,3531,5761,1632,0153,779086452,057

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Clwyd if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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