Crewe and Nantwich: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Crewe and Nantwich: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Kieran Mullan  (CON)
County/Area:Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:76,322
Turnout:67.3%
Implied Majority 2019:6,753

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON23,74746.2%
LAB19,98838.9%
Green2,5404.9%
LIB2,1494.2%
OTH1,9483.8%
Reform9971.9%
CON Majority3,7597.3%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
CON
69%
LAB
31%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Crewe and Nantwich : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Crewe and Nantwich constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position6° Right4° Left
National Position8° Nat1° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %59%54%52%
British Identity25%28%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born93%92%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job45%49%51%
High SEC46%48%51%
Average Age48.548.548.3
ABC1 Class47%50%54%
Average House Price£198,022£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Crewe and Nantwich: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Crewe and Nantwich

The new seat of Crewe and Nantwich is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Crewe and NantwichActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastCrewe Central3,425Crewe and NantwichLABLAB7461,1911344210100902,304
Cheshire EastCrewe East10,670Crewe and NantwichLABLAB2,5973,529204163420002657,178
Cheshire EastCrewe North3,415Crewe and NantwichLABLAB8611,14060529300912,297
Cheshire EastCrewe St Barnabas3,083Crewe and NantwichLABLAB6781,15736468000752,072
Cheshire EastCrewe South6,690Crewe and NantwichLABLAB1,5422,32018681197001764,502
Cheshire EastCrewe West7,032Crewe and NantwichLABLAB1,6902,45312698192001704,729
Cheshire EastHaslington7,190Crewe and NantwichCONCON3,0201,01423491304001754,838
Cheshire EastLeighton3,937Crewe and NantwichCONCON1,4128926957114001052,649
Cheshire EastLeighton494EddisburyCONCON169111380180021357
Cheshire EastNantwich North and West7,154Crewe and NantwichCONCON2,5011,62919594207001864,812
Cheshire EastNantwich South and Stapeley7,369Crewe and NantwichCONCON2,7891,19245378238002094,959
Cheshire EastShavington4,058Crewe and NantwichCONCON1,4358911385111400992,728
Cheshire EastWillaston and Rope4,127Crewe and NantwichCONCON1,54576814848167001012,777
Cheshire EastWistaston7,678Crewe and NantwichCONCON2,7621,70113095294001845,166
 Total76,322 CONCON23,74719,9882,1519962,539001,94751,368

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Crewe and Nantwich if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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