Dagenham and Rainham: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Dagenham and Rainham: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Jon Cruddas  (LAB)
County/Area:Barking and Dagenham (London)
Implied Turnout 2019:61.3%
Predicted Turnout:49.5%

LAB Majority4010.9%26.1%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in London.

Chance of winning

Dagenham and Rainham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dagenham and Rainham constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left2° Left
National Position15° Nat16° Glo
Social Position9° Con5° Lib
EU Leave %70%40%52%
Average Age46.745.349.5
Good Education44%60%49%
Car owner73%59%77%
Ethnic White58%54%83%
ABC1 Class46%59%56%
Gross Household Income£45,260£53,561£42,397
Average House Price£341,624£631,346£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Dagenham and Rainham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Dagenham and Rainham

The new seat of Dagenham and Rainham is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Dagenham and RainhamActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
HaveringBeam Park3,610Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
HaveringElm Park8,777Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
HaveringElm Park2,381Hornchurch and UpminsterCONLAB
HaveringHacton264Dagenham and RainhamCONCON
HaveringRainham and Wennington8,776Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
HaveringSouth Hornchurch6,794Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
Barking and DagenhamAlibon1,814Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamBeam4,817Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamChadwell Heath972Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamEastbrook and Rush Green5,545Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
Barking and DagenhamGoresbrook1,440Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamHeath5,282Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamParsloes1,241Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamValence5,506BarkingLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamValence523Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamVillage7,502Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamWhalebone1,321BarkingLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamWhalebone6,666Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
 Total73,231 LABLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Dagenham and Rainham if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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