Dagenham and Rainham: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Dagenham and Rainham: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Jon Cruddas  (LAB)
County/Area:Barking and Dagenham (London)
Electorate:73,233
Implied Turnout 2019:61.3%
Predicted Turnout:62.2%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB19,96444.5%47.2%
CON19,54043.5%16.1%
Reform2,9526.6%26.4%
LIB1,3493.0%2.8%
Green6991.6%5.7%
OTH4040.9%1.8%
LAB Majority4240.9%20.8%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in London.

Chance of winning
LAB
94%
CON
0%
Reform
6%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Dagenham and Rainham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dagenham and Rainham constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left2° Left
National Position15° Nat16° Glo
Social Position9° Con5° Lib
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %70%40%52%
Average Age46.745.349.5
Good Education44%60%49%
Employed59%61%58%
Homeowner59%48%63%
Car owner73%59%77%
Married44%40%45%
Ethnic White58%54%83%
Christian53%44%50%
ABC1 Class46%59%56%
Gross Household Income£45,260£53,561£42,397
Deprivation59%52%52%
Average House Price£341,624£631,346£313,528

Dagenham and Rainham ranks #21 for "Leave", #415 for "Economic Right Position", #40 for "National Position" and #41 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Dagenham and Rainham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Dagenham and Rainham

The new seat of Dagenham and Rainham is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Dagenham and RainhamActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
HaveringBeam Park3,615Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
HaveringElm Park9,191Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
HaveringElm Park2,037Hornchurch and UpminsterCONLAB
HaveringHacton265Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
HaveringRainham and Wennington8,788Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
HaveringSouth Hornchurch6,803Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
Barking and DagenhamAlibon1,816Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamBeam4,824Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamChadwell Heath1,054Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamEastbrook and Rush Green5,553Dagenham and RainhamCONLAB
Barking and DagenhamGoresbrook1,442Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamHeath5,290Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamParsloes1,243Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamValence5,248BarkingLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamValence502Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamVillage7,513Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamWhalebone1,470BarkingLABLAB
Barking and DagenhamWhalebone6,576Dagenham and RainhamLABLAB
 Total73,230 LABLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Dagenham and Rainham if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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