Devon South: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Devon South: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Anthony Mangnall  (CON)
County/Area:Devon (South West)
Electorate:72,090
Implied Turnout 2019:74.6%
Predicted Turnout:66.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON28,87353.7%28.7%
LIB15,14828.2%27.5%
LAB9,16117.0%27.5%
OTH5381.0%0.8%
Green760.1%3.7%
Reform00.0%11.8%
CON Majority13,72525.5%1.1%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in South West.

Chance of winning
CON
37%
LIB
31%
LAB
32%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%

You can search for another postcode:

Go

Devon South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Devon South constituency, the 'South West' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00102083) around the postcode TQ9 6NZ, and the Dartington and Staverton ward of South Hams district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCONCONCON
Economic Position4° RightCentrist7° Right8° Right
National Position7° GloGlobal7° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° LibVery Lib3° Con
TribeKind YuppiesProgressivesCentrists
EU Leave %38%Very Remain52%53%52%
Average Age56.656.256.251.649.5
Good Education68%66%51%52%49%
Employed51%52%50%57%58%
Homeowner82%74%71%68%63%
Car owner95%93%85%84%77%
Married56%48%50%47%45%
Ethnic White97%97%97%93%83%
Christian43%41%51%49%50%
ABC1 Class64%67%54%58%56%
Gross Household Income£43,842£43,479£38,546£41,731£42,397
Deprivation45%44%52%50%52%
Average House Pricen/a£407,007£379,276£311,706£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Devon South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Devon South

The new seat of Devon South is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Devon SouthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
South HamsAllington and Strete2,449TotnesCONCON
South HamsBlackawton and Stoke Fleming1,998TotnesCONCON
South HamsCharterlands2,441Devon South WestCONCON
South HamsDartington and Staverton2,302TotnesCONCON
South HamsDartmouth and East Dart6,315TotnesCONCON
South HamsKingsbridge4,502TotnesCONLIB
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford752Devon South WestCONCON
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford1,503TotnesCONCON
South HamsMarldon and Littlehempston2,428TotnesCONCON
South HamsSalcombe and Thurlestone4,079TotnesCONCON
South HamsSouth Brent4,361TotnesCONLIB
South HamsStokenham2,264TotnesCONLIB
South HamsTotnes7,243TotnesCONLAB
South HamsWest Dart2,164TotnesCONLIB
TorbayChurston with Galmpton42TorbayCONCON
TorbayChurston with Galmpton5,795TotnesCONCON
TorbayCollaton St Mary2,287TotnesCONCON
TorbayFurzeham with Summercombe8,243TotnesCONCON
TorbayKing's Ash88TorbayCONLAB
TorbayKing's Ash5,378TotnesCONLAB
TorbaySt Peter's with St Mary's5,459TotnesCONCON
 Total72,093 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Devon South if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc1083)