East Lothian Coast: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

East Lothian Coast: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Kenny MacAskill  (SNP)
County/Area:Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:74,384
Turnout:71.7%
Implied Majority 2019:3,099

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP20,58538.6%
LAB16,77831.5%
CON10,46119.6%
LIB2,2974.3%
OTH1,9153.6%
Green1,0812.0%
Reform2230.4%
NAT Majority3,8077.1%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
67%
LAB
29%
CON
4%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%

East Lothian Coast : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new East Lothian Coast constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LABSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position23° Left23° Left
National Position15° Glo15° Glo
Social Position13° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %35%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health55%52%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job50%49%51%
High SEC60%55%51%
Average Age50.648.648.3
ABC1 Class52%50%54%
Average House Price£236,112£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

East Lothian Coast: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: East Lothian Coast

The new seat of East Lothian Coast is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: East Lothian CoastActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East LothianMusselburgh8,849East LothianSNPSNP8191,839343291382,89502836,346
East LothianPreston, Seton and Gosford14,276East LothianSNPSNP1,7103,693337411983,960029910,238
East LothianTranent, Wallyford and Macmerry14,429East LothianSNPSNP1,1764,001323381854,263036210,348
East LothianNorth Berwick Coastal11,018East LothianCONCON2,8051,827378341672,38503047,900
East LothianHaddington and Lammermuir14,468East LothianSNPSNP2,2253,128532462233,839038010,373
East LothianDunbar and East Linton11,344East LothianSNPSNP1,7272,289383351713,24302868,134
 Total74,384 SNPSNP10,46216,7772,2962231,08220,58501,91453,339

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of East Lothian Coast if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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