Edinburgh North and Leith: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Edinburgh North and Leith: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Deidre Brock  (SNP)
County/Area:Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:77,248
Turnout:73.0%
Implied Majority 2019:12,161

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP26,69347.4%
LAB13,72924.4%
CON6,35211.3%
LIB3,8646.9%
Green3,1085.5%
OTH1,8293.2%
Reform7871.4%
NAT Majority12,96423.0%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
94%
LAB
6%
CON
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Edinburgh North and Leith : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Edinburgh North and Leith constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position22° Left23° Left
National Position37° Glo15° Glo
Social Position27° Lib13° Lib
TribeStrong Left
EU Leave %21%38%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health58%52%48%
UK Born80%93%87%
Good Education57%36%39%
Good Job66%49%51%
High SEC65%55%51%
Average Age43.048.648.3
ABC1 Class69%50%54%
Average House Price£267,941£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Edinburgh North and Leith: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Edinburgh North and Leith

The new seat of Edinburgh North and Leith is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Edinburgh North and LeithActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghForth22,641Edinburgh North and LeithSNPSNP1,8264,2361,0552548367,704061016,521
EdinburghInverleith14,297Edinburgh North and LeithSNPSNP2,0171,8231,1141416524,239044610,432
EdinburghCity Centre6,497Edinburgh North and LeithSNPSNP818943325633092,11001714,739
EdinburghLeith Walk20,200Edinburgh North and LeithSNPSNP9374,1138041988007,542034414,738
EdinburghLeith13,613Edinburgh North and LeithSNPSNP7552,6145661315115,09802579,932
 Total77,248 SNPSNP6,35313,7293,8647873,10826,69301,82856,362

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Edinburgh North and Leith if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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