Hereford and South Herefordshire: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Jesse Norman  (CON)
County/Area:Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:71,233
Implied Turnout 2019:68.9%
Predicted Turnout:61.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON29,96361.1%29.8%
LAB10,58321.6%32.9%
LIB6,17212.6%13.9%
Green2,3614.8%6.7%
Reform00.0%15.3%
OTH00.0%1.4%
CON Majority19,38039.5%3.0%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
40%
LAB
56%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
Reform
2%
OTH
0%

Hereford and South Herefordshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Hereford and South Herefordshire constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right3° Right
National Position12° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %61%59%52%
Average Age52.549.849.5
Good Education48%46%49%
Employed58%55%58%
Homeowner66%65%63%
Car owner83%79%77%
Married47%45%45%
Ethnic White96%77%83%
Christian58%49%50%
ABC1 Class51%51%56%
Gross Household Income£39,652£39,700£42,397
Deprivation52%54%52%
Average House Price£266,927£231,981£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire

The new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Hereford and South HerefordshireActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
HerefordshireAylestone Hill2,454Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireBelmont Rural2,635Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireBirch2,526Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireBobblestock2,376Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireCentral2,328Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireCollege2,739Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireDinedor Hill2,772Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireEign Hill2,720Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2,516Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireGolden Valley South2,672Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireGreyfriars2,760Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton2,708Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2,523Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireKings Acre2,518Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireLlangarron2,785Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireNewton Farm2,717Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshirePenyard2,896Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireRed Hill2,855Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireRoss East2,887Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireRoss North2,672Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireRoss West2,657Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireSaxon Gate2,777Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireTupsley2,536Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireWhitecross2,569Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireWidemarsh2,076Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLAB
HerefordshireWormside2,811Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireStoney Street2,399Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON
HerefordshireStoney Street360Herefordshire NorthCONCON
 Total71,244 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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