Highland Central: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Highland Central: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Drew Hendry  (SNP)
County/Area:Highland (Scotland)
Electorate:76,666
Turnout:71.3%
Implied Majority 2019:14,217

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP28,93153.0%
CON8,42115.4%
LAB5,77310.6%
LIB5,3749.8%
Green2,4964.6%
OTH2,3594.3%
Reform1,2822.3%
NAT Majority20,51037.5%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
99%
CON
1%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Highland Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Highland Central constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position23° Left23° Left
National Position14° Glo15° Glo
Social Position16° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %41%38%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health55%52%48%
UK Born93%93%87%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job46%49%51%
High SEC58%55%51%
Average Age49.448.648.3
ABC1 Class48%50%54%
Average House Price£186,877£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Highland Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Highland Central

The new seat of Highland Central is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Highland CentralActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandWester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh3,580Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP32022141861861,34301832,632
HighlandEilean á Chèo (Skye)8,477Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP5044751,0571611723,50703576,233
HighlandCaol and Mallaig24Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP41100100117
HighlandCaol and Mallaig6,819Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP3965307951371372,73902785,012
HighlandAird and Loch Ness4,779Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP957164163752471,64101083,355
HighlandAird and Loch Ness509Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP682152812189024374
HighlandInverness West7,904Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP7286245921362802,95202385,550
HighlandInverness Central8,319Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP6641,0942181233403,23201705,841
HighlandInverness Ness-side7,931Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP9695636151312842,76502425,569
HighlandInverness Millburn7,274Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP9607472651183002,55001675,107
HighlandCulloden and Ardersier4,492Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP641254196701681,71701093,155
HighlandInverness South11,478Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP1,8956335121753664,19602818,058
HighlandFort William and Ardnamurchan5,080Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP315447490851052,09102023,735
 Total76,666 SNPSNP8,4215,7745,3741,2802,49728,93202,36054,638

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Highland Central if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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