Highland North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Highland North: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Unknown (changed seat)  (SNP)
County/Area:Highland (Scotland)
Electorate:75,388
Turnout:69.4%
Implied Majority 2019:4,160

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP23,29344.5%
LIB13,03424.9%
CON5,97211.4%
LAB4,1988.0%
OTH2,4394.7%
Reform1,7953.4%
Green1,5793.0%
NAT Majority10,25919.6%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
90%
LIB
10%
CON
0%
LAB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%

Highland North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Highland North constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position23° Left23° Left
National Position7° Glo15° Glo
Social Position12° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %47%38%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health53%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC56%55%51%
Average Age51.948.648.3
ABC1 Class44%50%54%
Average House Price£161,145£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Highland North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Highland North

The new seat of Highland North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Highland NorthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandNorth, West and Central Sutherland4,736Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNP401254921135991,22901373,176
HighlandThurso and Northwest Caithness9,883Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNP7825302,0042882042,53202836,623
HighlandWick and East Caithness9,694Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNP5866902,0253051762,47102446,497
HighlandEast Sutherland and Edderton6,132Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNP4124511,2981731171,49801624,111
HighlandWester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh6,097Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP5593707341031402,27703014,484
HighlandCromarty Firth9,540Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossSNPSNP4295031,7102371543,14802136,394
HighlandTain and Easter Ross6,945Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossSNPSNP5232601,3961841401,95801944,655
HighlandDingwall and Seaforth9,881Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP7106051,4341772043,74303907,263
HighlandBlack Isle8,341Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP8693831,2191261912,96603786,132
HighlandAird and Loch Ness2,079Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeySNPSNP4217074321067120451,460
HighlandAird and Loch Ness2,060Ross Skye and LochaberSNPSNP2808221934477600931,515
 Total75,388 SNPSNP5,9724,19813,0341,7941,57823,29402,44052,310

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Highland North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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