Kenilworth and Southam: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Kenilworth and Southam: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Jeremy Wright  (CON)
County/Area:Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:70,364
Implied Turnout 2019:76.6%
Predicted Turnout:79.0%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON31,64558.7%32.7%
LAB9,78518.1%23.6%
LIB9,65317.9%19.5%
Green2,3194.3%4.7%
OTH4540.8%0.8%
Reform740.1%18.7%
CON Majority21,86040.5%9.0%
CON Maj

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
64%
LAB
22%
LIB
6%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
8%

Kenilworth and Southam : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kenilworth and Southam constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right3° Right
National Position7° Nat
Social Position6° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %46%59%52%
Average Age53.049.849.5
Good Education61%46%49%
Employed58%55%58%
Homeowner77%65%63%
Car owner91%79%77%
Married53%45%45%
Ethnic White93%77%83%
Christian57%49%50%
ABC1 Class73%51%56%
Gross Household Income£50,223£39,700£42,397
Deprivation41%54%52%
Average House Price£376,434£231,981£313,528

Kenilworth and Southam ranks #477 for "Leave", #37 for "Economic Right Position", #405 for "National Position" and #385 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Kenilworth and Southam: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Kenilworth and Southam

The new seat of Kenilworth and Southam is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Kenilworth and SouthamActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
RugbyLeam Valley1,937Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
RugbyDunsmore5,728Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
RugbyDunsmore413RugbyCONCON
WarwickBudbrooke5,001Warwick and LeamingtonCONCON
WarwickCubbington and Leek Wootton4,380Kenilworth and SouthamCONLAB
WarwickCubbington and Leek Wootton20Warwick and LeamingtonCONLAB
WarwickKenilworth Abbey and Arden7,640Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
WarwickKenilworth Park Hill7,622Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
WarwickKenilworth St John's7,430Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonBishop's Itchington, Fenny Compton and Napton5,396Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonGaydon, Kineton and Upper Lighthorne4,037Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonGaydon, Kineton and Upper Lighthorne255Stratford-on-AvonCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonHarbury2,559Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonSoutham East, Central and Stockton2,308Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonSoutham North and Long Itchington2,367Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonSoutham South2,282Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonSoutham West2,392Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonTysoe403Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonTysoe1,334Stratford-on-AvonCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonWellesbourne East and Rural2,228Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonWellesbourne North and Rural2,207Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonWellesbourne North and Rural45Stratford-on-AvonCONCON
Stratford-on-AvonWellesbourne South2,381Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON
 Total70,365 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Kenilworth and Southam if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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