Kenilworth and Southam: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Kenilworth and Southam: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Jeremy Wright  (CON)
County/Area:Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:72,975
Turnout:76.7%
Implied Majority 2019:22,656

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON29,95753.5%
LAB10,40618.6%
LIB8,42015.1%
Green4,4037.9%
OTH2,7054.8%
Reform550.1%
CON Majority19,55134.9%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Kenilworth and Southam : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kenilworth and Southam constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right3° Right
National Position7° Nat
Social Position6° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %44%59%52%
British Identity29%29%29%
Good Health50%45%48%
UK Born93%89%87%
Good Education51%36%39%
Good Job64%48%51%
High SEC66%46%51%
Average Age51.848.648.3
ABC1 Class69%49%54%
Average House Price£374,399£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Kenilworth and Southam: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Kenilworth and Southam

The new seat of Kenilworth and Southam is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Kenilworth and SouthamActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RugbyLeam Valley1,970Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,00024712808700581,520
Stratford-on-AvonBishop's Itchington3,117Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,4203882910193001132,405
Stratford-on-AvonHarbury2,830Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON9703944810193001462,184
Stratford-on-AvonKineton2,722Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,253322257017500942,101
Stratford-on-AvonKineton200Stratford-on-AvonCONCON941323012006148
Stratford-on-AvonLong Itchington and Stockton3,419Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,1685086000213001502,639
Stratford-on-AvonNapton and Fenny Compton2,758Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,0273164830189001122,127
Stratford-on-AvonRed Horse1,355Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON66114710408700471,046
Stratford-on-AvonRed Horse1,373Stratford-on-AvonCONCON6779113207900411,020
Stratford-on-AvonSoutham North2,751Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,0314792880186001392,123
Stratford-on-AvonSoutham South2,949Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,321471223016900932,277
Stratford-on-AvonWellesbourne East2,821Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,1733374100151001062,177
Stratford-on-AvonWellesbourne East151Stratford-on-AvonCONCON62132607005113
Stratford-on-AvonWellesbourne West3,131Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,4234402720177001042,416
RugbyDunsmore6,068Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON2,7048366240275002444,683
RugbyDunsmore166RugbyCONCON76211006004117
WarwickBudbrooke5,030Warwick and LeamingtonCONCON1,9971,04315355194001283,570
WarwickCubbington and Leek Wootton4,460Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,9078043180274001403,443
WarwickCubbington and Leek Wootton14Warwick and LeamingtonCONCON630000009
WarwickKenilworth Abbey and Arden7,770Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON3,3049608780527003285,997
WarwickKenilworth Park Hill7,752Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON3,0891,2487400633002705,980
WarwickKenilworth St John's7,557Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON2,5139201,7170400002825,832
WarwickRadford Semele2,611Kenilworth and SouthamCONCON1,082405262017400922,015
 Total72,975 CONCON29,95810,4068,420554,401002,70255,942

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Kenilworth and Southam if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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