Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Neale Hanvey  (SNP)
County/Area:Fife (Scotland)
Electorate:74,397
Turnout:65.1%
Implied Majority 2019:2,497

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP18,90439.0%
LAB15,77432.6%
CON6,66613.8%
Green2,6265.4%
LIB1,9504.0%
OTH1,3372.8%
Reform1,1982.5%
NAT Majority3,1306.5%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
66%
LAB
33%
CON
1%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position28° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position13° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %43%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%52%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job47%49%51%
High SEC52%55%51%
Average Age50.048.648.3
ABC1 Class47%50%54%
Average House Price£141,331£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

The new seat of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FifeInverkeithing and Dalgety Bay4,699Dunfermline and West FifeSNPSNP747639140151641,47401003,279
FifeInverkeithing and Dalgety Bay9,008Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathCONSNP1,4711,3062681483552,08301815,812
FifeBurntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy11,191Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathSNPSNP1,3431,7635302025282,59902577,222
FifeBurntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy24GlenrothesSNPSNP3210080115
FifeKirkcaldy North10,245Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLABLAB7142,5362201853372,43601826,610
FifeKirkcaldy North1,667GlenrothesSNPSNP1083174235215010291,053
FifeKirkcaldy Central10,966Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathSNPSNP6982,5622481934102,78001837,074
FifeKirkcaldy East10,448Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathSNPSNP6522,3842131853842,75401686,740
FifeCowdenbeath4,387Dunfermline and West FifeSNPSNP2441,1618291001,4020633,061
FifeCowdenbeath11,762Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLABLAB6873,1042042253272,86701747,588
 Total74,397 SNPSNP6,66715,7741,9481,1972,62618,90401,33848,454

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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