Lancashire West: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Lancashire West: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Rosie Cooper  (LAB)
County/Area:Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:73,347
Turnout:71.8%
Implied Majority 2019:8,336

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB27,67252.5%
CON16,25630.9%
Green2,9675.6%
LIB2,1164.0%
OTH1,9543.7%
Reform1,6953.2%
LAB Majority11,41621.7%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
LAB
90%
CON
10%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Lancashire West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lancashire West constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left4° Left
National Position2° Nat1° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %54%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job50%49%51%
High SEC50%48%51%
Average Age49.848.548.3
ABC1 Class51%50%54%
Average House Price£221,578£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Lancashire West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Lancashire West

The new seat of Lancashire West is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Lancashire WestActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West LancashireAshurst4,824Lancashire WestLABLAB6342,151144116288001303,463
West LancashireAughton and Downholland4,559Lancashire WestCONCON1,5221,16912198244001193,273
West LancashireAughton Park3,195Lancashire WestCONCON1,158801856310500832,295
West LancashireBirch Green2,764Lancashire WestLABLAB2901,40064669200721,984
West LancashireBurscough East3,575Lancashire WestLABLAB9491,2201107411800952,566
West LancashireBurscough West3,894Lancashire WestLABLAB8271,55010284131001022,796
West LancashireDerby5,507Lancashire WestLABLAB1,1512,052234130232001553,954
West LancashireDigmoor2,774Lancashire WestLABLAB3221,38159669200721,992
West LancashireHalsall1,754Lancashire WestCONLAB47254038896600541,259
West LancashireKnowsley4,638Lancashire WestLABLAB8781,717196110297001313,329
West LancashireMoorside2,493Lancashire WestLABLAB2491,29152568100621,791
West LancashireParbold3,095Lancashire WestCONCON1,119760995510800812,222
West LancashireScarisbrick3,079Lancashire WestCONCON1,052845696410200792,211
West LancashireScott4,657Lancashire WestLABLAB8591,891168114182001293,343
West LancashireSkelmersdale North2,850Lancashire WestLABLAB3631,37074719300762,047
West LancashireSkelmersdale South4,582Lancashire WestLABLAB5852,187129109157001223,289
West LancashireTanhouse3,268Lancashire WestLABLAB3941,611667811200852,346
West LancashireUp Holland4,997Lancashire WestLABLAB1,2181,857121104159001293,588
West LancashireWrightington3,349Lancashire WestCONCON1,1158441017018600882,404
West LancashireBickerstaffe1,818Lancashire WestLABLAB47062550456600491,305
West LancashireNewburgh1,675Lancashire WestCONCON62840935325800421,204
 Total73,347 LABLAB16,25527,6712,1171,6942,969001,95552,661

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Lancashire West if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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