Manchester Central: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Manchester Central: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Lucy Powell  (LAB)
County/Area:Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:74,790
Turnout:56.1%
Implied Majority 2019:24,476

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB30,34372.3%
CON4,17410.0%
Green2,6886.4%
LIB2,4905.9%
OTH1,2643.0%
Reform9902.4%
LAB Majority26,16962.4%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Manchester Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Manchester Central constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position10° Left4° Left
National Position29° Glo1° Nat
Social Position14° Lib2° Con
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %32%54%52%
British Identity34%28%29%
Good Health53%47%48%
UK Born61%92%87%
Good Education55%37%39%
Good Job55%49%51%
High SEC39%48%51%
Average Age34.348.548.3
ABC1 Class61%50%54%
Average House Price£242,834£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Manchester Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Manchester Central

The new seat of Manchester Central is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Manchester CentralActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ManchesterAncoats and Beswick10,392Manchester CentralLABLAB7233,910376239420002245,892
ManchesterArdwick11,431Manchester CentralLABLAB4965,005357103363001546,478
ManchesterCheetham11,478Blackley and BroughtonLABLAB6734,566168158303001736,041
ManchesterDeansgate387Blackley and BroughtonLABLAB4110921618009204
ManchesterDeansgate6,532Manchester CentralLABLAB5922,12542766326001663,702
ManchesterHulme11,609Manchester CentralLABLAB5074,966379115433001816,581
ManchesterMiles Platting and Newton Heath3,682Manchester CentralLABLAB2311,4685113812100782,087
ManchesterMoss Side10,401Manchester CentralLABLAB3574,83721681300001065,897
ManchesterMoss Side2,055Manchester GortonLABLAB391,03935145800141,199
ManchesterPiccadilly6,823Manchester CentralLABLAB5142,31646171345001613,868
 Total74,790 LABLAB4,17330,3412,4919912,687001,26641,949

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Manchester Central if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (28-Jun-2021 11:26, Py3L, sc1134)