Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Craig Williams  (CON)
County/Area:Powys (Wales)
Electorate:74,118
Implied Turnout 2019:69.0%
Predicted Turnout:67.6%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON26,69152.2%27.2%
LAB13,31426.0%36.2%
LIB8,60516.8%6.4%
Plaid1,0972.1%7.4%
OTH7281.4%0.0%
Reform6961.4%20.1%
Green00.0%2.7%
CON Majority13,37726.2%9.0%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
CON
23%
LAB
70%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
6%
Green
0%

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Left
National Position9° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%53%52%
Average Age53.251.149.5
Good Education46%49%49%
Employed56%53%58%
Homeowner66%67%63%
Car owner85%81%77%
Married46%44%45%
Ethnic White98%94%83%
Christian52%47%50%
ABC1 Class45%52%56%
Gross Household Income£36,019£36,386£42,397
Deprivation53%54%52%
Average House Price£201,670£193,404£313,528

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr ranks #199 for "Leave", #341 for "Economic Right Position", #176 for "National Position" and #283 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

The new seat of Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Montgomeryshire and GlyndwrActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
PowysBanwy, Llanfihangel and Llanwddyn1,751MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysBerriew and Castle Careinion1,598MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysCaersws1,784MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysChurchstoke1,254MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysDolforwyn1,644MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysForden and Montgomery1,938MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysGlantwymyn1,615MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysGuilsfield1,360MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysKerry1,418MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysLlanbrynmair1,490MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysLlandinam with Dolfor1,295MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysLlandrinio1,695MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysLlandysilio1,426MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysLlanfair Caereinion and Llanerfyl1,614MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysLlanfyllin1,186MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysLlangyniew and Meifod1,564MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysLlanidloes3,331MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant and Llansilin1,794MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysLlansantffraid1,580MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysMachynlleth1,688MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysNewtown Central and South3,529MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysNewtown East1,490MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysNewtown North1,780MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysNewtown West1,419MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysRhiwcynon1,709MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysTrelystan and Trewern1,380MontgomeryshireCONCON
PowysWelshpool Castle1,649MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysWelshpool Gungrog1,600MontgomeryshireCONLAB
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,486MontgomeryshireCONLAB
WrexhamAcrefair North1,599Clwyd SouthLABLAB
WrexhamCefn East1,628Clwyd SouthLABLAB
WrexhamCefn West1,661Clwyd SouthLABLAB
WrexhamChirk North1,792Clwyd SouthLABLAB
WrexhamChirk South1,514Clwyd SouthCONLAB
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog1,638Clwyd SouthCONLAB
WrexhamEsclusham2,101Clwyd SouthCONLAB
WrexhamPant and Johnstown3,964Clwyd SouthCONLAB
WrexhamPenycae1,523Clwyd SouthCONLAB
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South2,083Clwyd SouthCONLAB
WrexhamPonciau1,795Clwyd SouthCONLAB
WrexhamRhos1,649Clwyd SouthCONLAB
WrexhamRuabon2,100Clwyd SouthCONLAB
 Total74,114 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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