Newton Abbot: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Newton Abbot: Overview

Prediction: LIB

Implied MP at 2019:Anne Marie Morris  (CON)
County/Area:Devon (South West)
Electorate:72,392
Implied Turnout 2019:72.5%
Predicted Turnout:68.6%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON29,13855.5%28.7%
LIB11,66822.2%35.0%
LAB9,30817.7%12.5%
Green1,5072.9%3.2%
OTH8401.6%1.5%
Reform00.0%19.0%
CON Majority17,47033.3%6.3%
LIB Maj

See overview of other seats in South West.

Chance of winning
CON
30%
LIB
64%
LAB
2%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
5%

Newton Abbot : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Newton Abbot constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2024LIBCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position10° Nat4° Nat
Social Position4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %57%53%52%
Average Age54.451.649.5
Good Education48%52%49%
Employed54%57%58%
Homeowner73%68%63%
Car owner85%84%77%
Married48%47%45%
Ethnic White98%93%83%
Christian50%49%50%
ABC1 Class56%58%56%
Gross Household Income£38,921£41,731£42,397
Deprivation51%50%52%
Average House Price£279,570£311,706£313,528

Newton Abbot ranks #233 for "Leave", #168 for "Economic Right Position", #151 for "National Position" and #255 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Newton Abbot: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Newton Abbot

The new seat of Newton Abbot is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Newton AbbotActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
TeignbridgeAmbrook4,715Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeBishopsteignton2,224Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeBradley5,354Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeBuckland and Milber6,502Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeBushell4,574Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeCollege4,007Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeDawlish North East6,970Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeDawlish South West4,800Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeIpplepen2,074Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeKenton and Starcross2,406Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeKerswell-with-Combe4,743Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeKingsteignton East5,019Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeKingsteignton West4,638Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeShaldon and Stokeinteignhead2,101Newton AbbotCONCON
TeignbridgeTeignmouth Central4,395Newton AbbotCONLIB
TeignbridgeTeignmouth East3,942Newton AbbotCONCON
TeignbridgeTeignmouth West3,929Newton AbbotCONLIB
 Total72,393 CONLIB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Newton Abbot if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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