Pembrokeshire Mid and South: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Pembrokeshire Mid and South: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Stephen Crabb  (CON)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:76,780
Implied Turnout 2019:71.2%
Predicted Turnout:60.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON28,87552.8%21.8%
LAB20,73237.9%50.7%
Plaid2,7915.1%3.5%
LIB2,2514.1%3.8%
Reform00.0%15.2%
Green00.0%3.4%
OTH00.0%1.6%
CON Majority8,14314.9%28.9%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
CON
2%
LAB
97%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Pembrokeshire Mid and South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Pembrokeshire Mid and South constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position1° Left8° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
Average Age53.851.149.5
Good Education48%49%49%
Employed51%53%58%
Homeowner67%67%63%
Car owner85%81%77%
Married47%44%45%
Ethnic White97%94%83%
Christian52%47%50%
ABC1 Class47%52%56%
Gross Household Income£35,590£36,386£42,397
Deprivation54%54%52%
Average House Price£202,934£193,404£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Pembrokeshire Mid and South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Pembrokeshire Mid and South

The new seat of Pembrokeshire Mid and South is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Pembrokeshire Mid and SouthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
PembrokeshireAmroth and Saundersfoot North1,659Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireBurton1,519Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireCamrose1,519Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireCarew and Jeffreyston1,617Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,547Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Castle1,671Preseli PembrokeshireLABLAB
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Garth1,669Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Portfield1,792Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Prendergast1,630Preseli PembrokeshireLABLAB
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Priory1,905Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireHundleton1,413Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireJohnston1,579Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireKilgetty and Begelly1,689Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,259Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireLamphey1,431Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireLetterston1,893Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,833Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireManorbier and Penally1,776Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireMartletwy498Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,236Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,618Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireMilford Central1,593Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireMilford East1,978Preseli PembrokeshireLABLAB
PembrokeshireMilford Hakin1,971Preseli PembrokeshireLABLAB
PembrokeshireMilford Hubberston1,806Preseli PembrokeshireLABLAB
PembrokeshireMilford North1,689Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireMilford West1,550Preseli PembrokeshireLABLAB
PembrokeshireNarberth1,627Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthLABLAB
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,201Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireNeyland East1,819Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireNeyland West1,613Preseli PembrokeshireLABLAB
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock Bufferland1,207Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthLABLAB
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock Bush1,459Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthLABLAB
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock Central1,547Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock Market1,320Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock Pennar1,253Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthLABLAB
PembrokeshirePembroke Monkton and St Mary South2,609Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshirePembroke St Mary North1,503Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshirePembroke St Michael1,528Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireRudbaxton and Spittal1,327Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot South1,323Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireSolva1,302Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireSt David's1,555Preseli PembrokeshireLABLAB
PembrokeshireSt Florence and St Mary Out Liberty1,188Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,887Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireTenby North1,709Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireTenby South1,760Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLAB
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,589Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
PembrokeshireWiston1,112Preseli PembrokeshireCONLAB
 Total76,778 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Pembrokeshire Mid and South if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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