Pontypridd: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Pontypridd: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Alex Davies-Jones  (LAB)
County/Area:Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:71,171
Turnout:62.5%
Implied Majority 2019:9,633

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB22,16049.8%
CON8,98620.2%
Plaid4,68810.5%
Reform3,8958.8%
OTH2,8896.5%
Green1,5073.4%
LIB3610.8%
LAB Majority13,17429.6%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
98%
CON
2%
Plaid
0%
Reform
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%

Pontypridd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Pontypridd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position14° Left8° Left
National Position2° Glo
Social Position5° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education34%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC42%46%51%
Average Age48.049.548.3
ABC1 Class45%48%54%
Average House Price£145,825£194,381£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Pontypridd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Pontypridd

The new seat of Pontypridd is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: PontypriddActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Rhondda Cynon TafAberaman North3,608Cynon ValleyLABLAB2851,209532068116501342,133
Rhondda Cynon TafAbercynon4,440Cynon ValleyLABLAB3231,521543059016701682,628
Rhondda Cynon TafCilfynydd2,109Cynon ValleyLABLAB2016433612949980941,250
Rhondda Cynon TafGlyncoch2,005Cynon ValleyLABLAB12373626106361170421,186
Rhondda Cynon TafMountain Ash West3,122Cynon ValleyLABLAB2511,040351856814201271,848
Rhondda Cynon TafPenrhiwceiber4,055Cynon ValleyLABLAB2981,403432448214501842,399
Rhondda Cynon TafYnysybwl3,432Cynon ValleyLABLAB3251,09843190762200782,030
Rhondda Cynon TafAberaman South3,540Cynon ValleyLABLAB2801,142362487615501582,095
Rhondda Cynon TafMountain Ash East2,253Cynon ValleyLABLAB26157335148511640991,331
Rhondda Cynon TafTalbot Green10OgmoreLABLAB230100006
Rhondda Cynon TafHawthorn3,176PontypriddLABLAB2971,10501756720002132,057
Rhondda Cynon TafPontypridd Town2,205PontypriddLABLAB3035570113473280811,429
Rhondda Cynon TafRhondda3,453PontypriddLABLAB3991,08501867339101012,235
Rhondda Cynon TafRhydfelen Central / Ilan3,033PontypriddLABLAB2431,2180147592050911,963
Rhondda Cynon TafTon-teg3,179PontypriddCONLAB63174101796717802632,059
Rhondda Cynon TafTrallwng2,820PontypriddLABLAB3919450157601790951,827
Rhondda Cynon TafTreforest2,858PontypriddLABLAB2651,1120134612030761,851
Rhondda Cynon TafBeddau3,168PontypriddLABLAB5909690136672020882,052
Rhondda Cynon TafChurch Village4,418PontypriddLABLAB7631,24202129441701322,860
Rhondda Cynon TafGraig1,882PontypriddLABLAB18262901044013901241,218
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantrisant Town3,183PontypriddLABLAB6468380150682700902,062
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantwit Fardre4,819PontypriddCONCON1,356859022610236002163,119
Rhondda Cynon TafTalbot Green1,952PontypriddLABLAB26758001044112301491,264
Rhondda Cynon TafTyn-y-nant2,451PontypriddLABLAB3069110111521200871,587
 Total71,171 LABLAB8,98822,1593613,8961,5074,68802,89044,489

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Pontypridd if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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