Pontypridd: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Pontypridd: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Alex Davies-Jones  (LAB)
County/Area:Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:73,664
Implied Turnout 2019:62.7%
Predicted Turnout:58.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB22,04647.7%35.2%
CON12,63527.4%14.3%
Plaid4,92310.7%20.2%
Reform3,8088.2%19.5%
OTH2,0254.4%1.4%
LIB6471.4%4.0%
Green1010.2%5.4%
LAB Majority9,41120.4%14.9%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
79%
CON
3%
Plaid
8%
Reform
10%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Pontypridd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Pontypridd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Economic Position13° Left8° Left
National Position2° Glo
Social Position5° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %52%53%52%
Average Age49.451.149.5
Good Education47%49%49%
Employed55%53%58%
Homeowner70%67%63%
Car owner81%81%77%
Married43%44%45%
Ethnic White96%94%83%
Christian39%47%50%
ABC1 Class54%52%56%
Gross Household Income£35,963£36,386£42,397
Deprivation55%54%52%
Average House Price£162,470£193,404£313,528

Pontypridd ranks #358 for "Leave", #545 for "Economic Right Position", #443 for "National Position" and #516 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Pontypridd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Pontypridd

The new seat of Pontypridd is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: PontypriddActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Rhondda Cynon TafAbercynon4,470Cynon ValleyLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafBeddau and Tyn-y-Nant5,522PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafBrynna and Llanharan6,660OgmoreLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafChurch Village5,009PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafCilfynydd2,105Cynon ValleyLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafCymmer236PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafGlyncoch1,993Cynon ValleyLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafGraig and Pontypridd West5,117PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafHawthorn and Lower Rhydfelen1,784PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharry2,321OgmoreLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharry122PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantrisant and Talbot Green26OgmoreLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantrisant and Talbot Green5,149PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantwit Fardre4,757PontypriddCONLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafMountain Ash5,451Cynon ValleyLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafPenrhiwceiber4,076Cynon ValleyLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafPont-y-clun West725OgmoreLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafPontypridd Town2,191PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafRhydfelen Central1,926PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafTon-Teg2,473PontypriddCONLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafTrallwng2,786PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafTreforest2,962PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafUpper Rhydfelen and Glyn-taf2,369PontypriddLABLAB
Rhondda Cynon TafYnysybwl3,434Cynon ValleyLABLAB
 Total73,664 LABLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Pontypridd if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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