Renfrew South: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Renfrew South: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Mhairi Black  (SNP)
County/Area:Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:68,520
Turnout:67.2%
Implied Majority 2019:11,197

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP24,21852.6%
LAB12,45927.1%
CON5,19411.3%
LIB1,9234.2%
OTH1,1882.6%
Green8581.9%
Reform1770.4%
NAT Majority11,75925.6%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
95%
LAB
5%
CON
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%

Renfrew South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Renfrew South constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position33° Left23° Left
National Position17° Glo15° Glo
Social Position14° Lib13° Lib
TribeStrong Left
EU Leave %36%38%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health50%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC51%55%51%
Average Age49.048.648.3
ABC1 Class47%50%54%
Average House Price£133,532£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Renfrew South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Renfrew South

The new seat of Renfrew South is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Renfrew SouthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RenfrewshirePaisley Northwest6,754Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthSNPSNP3641,31912813622,5480864,520
RenfrewshirePaisley East and Central9,671Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthSNPSNP6261,833224221073,51101486,471
RenfrewshirePaisley Southeast9,223Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthSNPSNP6961,609227241163,34101616,174
RenfrewshirePaisley Southwest11,574Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthSNPSNP7011,858625341644,13602277,745
RenfrewshireJohnstone South and Elderslie1,093Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthSNPSNP8022431314383019754
RenfrewshireJohnstone South and Elderslie11,631Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthSNPSNP9102,229228301444,04401997,784
RenfrewshireJohnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and Lochwinnoch11,598Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthSNPSNP1,0262,172257311523,91202117,761
RenfrewshireHouston, Crosslee and Linwood6,797Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthSNPSNP7701,18520020972,28301354,690
RenfrewshireHouston, Crosslee and Linwood179Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthSNPSNP22294025903119
 Total68,520 SNPSNP5,19512,4581,92417785824,21701,18946,018

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Renfrew South if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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