Richmond Park: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Richmond Park: Overview

Prediction: LIB

Implied MP at 2019:Sarah Olney  (LIB)
County/Area:Richmond upon Thames (London)
Implied Turnout 2019:78.7%
Predicted Turnout:78.9%

LIB Majority6,99511.7%18.8%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in London.

Chance of winning

Richmond Park : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Richmond Park constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019LIBLABCON
Party Winner 2017LIBLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position18° Right2° Left
National Position23° Glo16° Glo
Social Position12° Lib5° Lib
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %29%40%52%
Average Age49.445.349.5
Good Education75%60%49%
Car owner73%59%77%
Ethnic White76%54%83%
ABC1 Class82%59%56%
Gross Household Income£68,950£53,561£42,397
Average House Price£1,048,250£631,346£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Richmond Park: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Richmond Park

The new seat of Richmond Park is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Richmond ParkActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
Richmond Upon ThamesBarnes7,361Richmond ParkCONLIB
Richmond Upon ThamesEast Sheen7,223Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Richmond Upon ThamesHam, Petersham and Richmond Riverside6,817Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Richmond Upon ThamesKew8,242Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Richmond Upon ThamesMortlake and Barnes Common8,054Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Richmond Upon ThamesNorth Richmond7,283Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Richmond Upon ThamesSouth Richmond7,583Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Kingston upon ThamesCanbury Gardens5,404Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Kingston upon ThamesCoombe Hill5,151Richmond ParkCONLIB
Kingston upon ThamesCoombe Vale391Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Kingston upon ThamesKingston Gate7,278Richmond ParkLIBLIB
Kingston upon ThamesTudor5,127Richmond ParkLIBLIB
 Total75,914 LIBLIB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Richmond Park if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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