Salford: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Salford: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Rebecca Long-Bailey  (LAB)
County/Area:Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:71,672
Turnout:60.6%
Implied Majority 2019:15,112

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB25,47158.7%
CON7,79117.9%
Green3,4237.9%
Reform2,6686.1%
LIB2,1835.0%
OTH1,8754.3%
LAB Majority17,68040.7%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
LAB
99%
CON
1%
Green
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Salford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Salford constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position11° Left4° Left
National Position6° Glo1° Nat
Social Position4° Lib2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %55%54%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born84%92%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC42%48%51%
Average Age43.148.548.3
ABC1 Class50%50%54%
Average House Price£191,953£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Salford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Salford

The new seat of Salford is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: SalfordActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SalfordBlackfriars and Trinity6,084Salford and EcclesLABLAB4282,322215236397001513,749
SalfordBroughton8,247Blackley and BroughtonLABLAB8452,818102164247001654,341
SalfordClaremont9,651Salford and EcclesLABLAB1,2602,972538398481002985,947
SalfordOrdsall6,090Salford and EcclesLABLAB4362,449146245328001473,751
SalfordPendlebury and Clifton8,742Salford and EcclesLABLAB1,3982,855162349387002345,385
SalfordPendleton and Charlestown8,538Salford and EcclesLABLAB6193,441216336440002075,259
SalfordQuays5,051Salford and EcclesLABLAB5001,570336195352001603,113
SalfordSwinton Park9,218Salford and EcclesLABLAB1,4692,983196365416002495,678
SalfordWeaste and Seedley10,051Salford and EcclesLABLAB8354,062272380376002656,190
 Total71,672 LABLAB7,79025,4722,1832,6683,424001,87643,413

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Salford if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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