Shrewsbury: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Shrewsbury: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Daniel Kawczynski  (CON)
County/Area:Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:74,764
Turnout:71.8%
Implied Majority 2019:8,804

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON24,72446.0%
LAB18,86435.1%
LIB4,5798.5%
Green3,2126.0%
OTH2,3194.3%
CON Majority5,86010.9%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
73%
LAB
27%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Shrewsbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Shrewsbury constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right3° Right
National Position4° Nat7° Nat
Social Position1° Con6° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %53%59%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born95%89%87%
Good Education41%36%39%
Good Job49%48%51%
High SEC53%46%51%
Average Age50.448.648.3
ABC1 Class53%49%54%
Average House Price£252,358£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Shrewsbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Shrewsbury

The new seat of Shrewsbury is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: ShrewsburyActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAbbey3,390Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,0916883980138001202,435
ShropshireBagley3,832Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,2359483050139001252,752
ShropshireBattlefield3,366Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,183882109015100902,415
ShropshireBayston Hill, Column and Sutton10,005Shrewsbury and AtchamCONLAB2,9763,1223810443002667,188
ShropshireBelle Vue3,436Shrewsbury and AtchamLABLAB8751,0172970168001112,468
ShropshireBowbrook3,374Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,345639182016100972,424
ShropshireCastlefields and Ditherington3,383Shrewsbury and AtchamLABLAB7191,361120014300862,429
ShropshireCopthorne3,285Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,3295092510159001102,358
ShropshireHarlescott3,320Shrewsbury and AtchamLABLAB8301,246105097001072,385
ShropshireLongden3,358Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,2446123030118001372,414
ShropshireLoton3,252Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,483497122013500992,336
ShropshireMeole3,302Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,1697771870136001052,374
ShropshireRea Valley3,338Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,3465762190136001212,398
ShropshireMonkmoor3,264Shrewsbury and AtchamLABLAB8091,2639709500802,344
ShropshirePorthill3,414Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,1446493440198001172,452
ShropshireQuarry and Coton Hill3,166Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON9946723120189001082,275
ShropshireRadbrook4,150Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,6526973080195001292,981
ShropshireSundorne3,101Shrewsbury and AtchamLABLAB7271,21411209600792,228
ShropshireTern3,865Shrewsbury and AtchamCONCON1,7186051710154001292,777
ShropshireUnderdale3,163Shrewsbury and AtchamCONLAB8568912580162001052,272
 Total74,764 CONCON24,72518,8654,58103,213002,32153,705

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Shrewsbury if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (28-Jun-2021 11:26, Py3L, sc1072)