Somerset North East and Hanham: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Somerset North East and Hanham: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Jacob Rees-Mogg  (CON)
County/Area:Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:72,940
Implied Turnout 2019:74.2%
Predicted Turnout:65.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON30,09555.6%33.5%
LAB13,83625.6%43.9%
LIB8,33215.4%7.8%
Green1,4342.6%3.1%
OTH4340.8%0.7%
Reform00.0%11.0%
CON Majority16,25930.0%10.4%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in South West.

Chance of winning
CON
25%
LAB
75%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

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Somerset North East and Hanham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Somerset North East and Hanham constituency, the 'South West' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00072742) around the postcode BS31 1AL, and the Keynsham South ward of Bath and North East Somerset district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCONCONCON
Economic Position4° RightCentrist10° Right8° Right
National Position19° NatNational8° Nat4° Nat
Social Position11° ConModerate3° Con
TribeStrong RightCentristsStrong Right
EU Leave %64%Balanced54%53%52%
Average Age53.547.151.951.649.5
Good Education49%51%52%52%49%
Employed64%65%60%57%58%
Homeowner72%68%77%68%63%
Car owner82%85%89%84%77%
Married54%43%50%47%45%
Ethnic White98%94%96%93%83%
Christian48%42%49%49%50%
ABC1 Class59%56%64%58%56%
Gross Household Income£34,639£36,938£45,011£41,731£42,397
Deprivation45%49%46%50%52%
Average House Pricen/a£326,408£339,534£311,706£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Somerset North East and Hanham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Somerset North East and Hanham

The new seat of Somerset North East and Hanham is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Somerset North East and HanhamActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
South GloucestershireBitton and Oldland Common7,527KingswoodCONLAB
South GloucestershireHanham10,207KingswoodCONLAB
South GloucestershireLongwell Green8,014KingswoodCONLAB
South GloucestershireParkwall and Warmley7,356KingswoodCONLAB
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley4,686Somerset North EastCONCON
Bath and North East SomersetClutton and Farmborough2,381Somerset North EastCONCON
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,349Somerset North EastCONLAB
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,478Somerset North EastCONLAB
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,531Somerset North EastCONLAB
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South5,159Somerset North EastCONLAB
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,323Somerset North EastCONLAB
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,559Somerset North EastCONLAB
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2,265Somerset North EastCONCON
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford5,027Somerset North EastCONCON
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,078Somerset North EastCONLAB
 Total72,940 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Somerset North East and Hanham if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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