| Party | Predicted Votes | Predicted Share |
|---|---|---|
| LAB | 18,325 | 38.6% |
| CON | 14,752 | 31.1% |
| LIB | 6,824 | 14.4% |
| Reform | 4,076 | 8.6% |
| Green | 2,876 | 6.1% |
| OTH | 640 | 1.3% |
| LAB Majority | 3,573 | 7.5% |
See overview of other seats in South West.
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| LAB |
| ||
| CON |
| ||
| LIB |
| ||
| Reform |
| ||
| Green |
| ||
| OTH |
| ||
| Implied MP at 2019: | Jacob Rees-Mogg (CON) |
| County/Area: | Bristol area (South West) |
| Electorate: | 72,940 |
| Predicted Turnout: | 65.1% |
| Implied Majority 2019: | 16,179 |
| Party | Predicted Votes | Predicted Share |
|---|---|---|
| LAB | 18,325 | 38.6% |
| CON | 14,752 | 31.1% |
| LIB | 6,824 | 14.4% |
| Reform | 4,076 | 8.6% |
| Green | 2,876 | 6.1% |
| OTH | 640 | 1.3% |
| LAB Majority | 3,573 | 7.5% |
See overview of other seats in South West.
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| LAB |
| ||
| CON |
| ||
| LIB |
| ||
| Reform |
| ||
| Green |
| ||
| OTH |
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The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Somerset North East and Hanham constituency, the 'South West' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00072742) around the postcode BS31 1AL, and the Keynsham South ward of Bath and North East Somerset district council.
The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).
The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
| Indicator | Locality | Ward | Seat | South West | All GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party Winner 2019 | CON | CON | CON | CON | CON |
| Party Winner 2017 | CON | CON | CON | CON | CON |
| Party Winner 2015 | CON | CON | CON | CON | CON |
| Economic Position | 4° Right | Centrist | 10° Right | 8° Right | 0° |
| National Position | 19° Nat | National | 8° Nat | 4° Nat | 0° |
| Social Position | 11° Con | Moderate | 3° Con | 0° | 0° |
| Tribe | Strong Right | Centrists | Strong Right | ||
| EU Leave % | 64% | Balanced | 54% | 53% | 52% |
| Average Age | 53.5 | 47.1 | 51.9 | 51.6 | 49.5 |
| Good Education | 49% | 51% | 52% | 52% | 49% |
| Employed | 64% | 65% | 60% | 57% | 58% |
| Homeowner | 72% | 68% | 77% | 68% | 63% |
| Car owner | 82% | 85% | 89% | 84% | 77% |
| Married | 54% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 45% |
| Ethnic White | 98% | 94% | 96% | 93% | 83% |
| Christian | 48% | 42% | 49% | 49% | 50% |
| ABC1 Class | 59% | 56% | 64% | 58% | 56% |
| Gross Household Income | £34,639 | £38,422 | £45,011 | £41,731 | £42,397 |
| Deprivation | 45% | 49% | 46% | 50% | 52% |
| Average House Price | n/a | £326,505 | £339,534 | £311,706 | £313,528 |
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
| Topic | Cat 1 | Cat 2 | Cat 3 | Cat 4 | Cat 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Position | Very Left | Left | Centrist | Right | Very Right |
| National Position | Very Global | Global | Centrist | National | Very Nat |
| Social Position | Very Lib | Liberal | Moderate | Conservative | Very Cons |
| EU Leave % | Very Remain | Remain | Balanced | Leave | Very Leave |
| Census | Very Low | Low | Medium | High | Very High |
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
| Indicator | Census Question | Definition / Included Census Categories |
|---|---|---|
| Party Winner | – | Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus |
| Economic Position | – | Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| National Position | – | National position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| Social Position | – | Social position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| Tribe | – | Tribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details. |
| EU Leave % | – | EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate |
| Average Age | Age (TS007A) | Average age of adults (18 years and above) |
| Good Education | Highest level of qualification (TS067) | Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent) |
| Employed | Economic activity status (TS066) | Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed |
| Homeowner | Tenure (TS054) | Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership |
| Car owner | Car or van availability (TS045) | In a household with at least one car or van |
| Married | Legal partnership status (TS002) | Married or civil partnership |
| Ethnic White | Ethnic group (TS021) | White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other |
| Christian | Religion (TS030) | Christian or Christian denomination (NI) |
| ABC1 Class | Approximated Social Grade (SG002) | Approximated social grades A, B and C1 |
| Gross Household Income | – | Median gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling. |
| Deprivation | Households by deprivation dimensions (TS011) | Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating). |
| Average House Price | – | Average residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance |
| New seat: Somerset North East and Hanham | Actual | Predicted results | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2017 | Old Seat | GE19 Winner | Pred Winner | CON Votes | LAB Votes | LIB Votes | Reform Votes | Green Votes | NAT Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
| South Gloucestershire | Bitton and Oldland Common | 7,434 | Kingswood | CON | LAB | 1,559 | 1,876 | 482 | 428 | 317 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 4,731 |
| South Gloucestershire | Hanham | 10,081 | Kingswood | CON | LAB | 2,087 | 2,548 | 503 | 587 | 432 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 6,251 |
| South Gloucestershire | Longwell Green | 7,915 | Kingswood | CON | LAB | 1,752 | 1,980 | 446 | 438 | 256 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 4,945 |
| South Gloucestershire | Parkwall and Warmley | 7,265 | Kingswood | CON | LAB | 1,344 | 2,072 | 342 | 369 | 236 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 4,441 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Chew Valley | 4,746 | Somerset North East | CON | CON | 1,225 | 945 | 648 | 285 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 3,337 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Clutton and Farmborough | 2,412 | Somerset North East | CON | CON | 539 | 506 | 325 | 145 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1,630 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | High Littleton | 2,380 | Somerset North East | CON | LAB | 477 | 506 | 388 | 137 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1,622 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Keynsham East | 4,535 | Somerset North East | CON | LAB | 908 | 963 | 819 | 249 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 3,140 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Keynsham North | 4,589 | Somerset North East | CON | LAB | 802 | 1,275 | 482 | 257 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 3,033 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Keynsham South | 5,225 | Somerset North East | CON | LAB | 837 | 1,518 | 392 | 290 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 3,312 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Mendip | 2,353 | Somerset North East | CON | LAB | 470 | 512 | 405 | 135 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1,636 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Paulton | 4,618 | Somerset North East | CON | LAB | 670 | 1,553 | 306 | 248 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 2,992 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Publow and Whitchurch | 2,294 | Somerset North East | CON | CON | 557 | 507 | 178 | 134 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1,482 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Saltford | 5,091 | Somerset North East | CON | CON | 1,116 | 1,067 | 878 | 250 | 240 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 3,585 |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Timsbury | 2,105 | Somerset North East | CON | LAB | 429 | 524 | 242 | 131 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1,427 |
| Total | 73,043 | CON | LAB | 14,772 | 18,352 | 6,836 | 4,083 | 2,878 | 0 | 0 | 643 | 47,564 | ||
And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Somerset North East and Hanham if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.
© 2023 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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