South Holland and The Deepings: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

South Holland and The Deepings: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:John Hayes  (CON)
County/Area:Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:75,977
Implied Turnout 2019:64.7%
Predicted Turnout:61.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON37,34075.9%34.2%
LAB6,50113.2%22.7%
LIB3,2266.6%4.3%
Green1,6103.3%3.4%
OTH5021.0%6.7%
Reform00.0%28.6%
CON Majority30,83962.7%5.6%
CON Maj

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
58%
LAB
13%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
29%

South Holland and The Deepings : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new South Holland and The Deepings constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right4° Right
National Position24° Nat7° Nat
Social Position14° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %72%59%52%
Average Age52.950.149.5
Good Education38%47%49%
Employed57%57%58%
Homeowner72%67%63%
Car owner88%81%77%
Married50%46%45%
Ethnic White96%86%83%
Christian62%48%50%
ABC1 Class47%53%56%
Gross Household Income£38,649£40,483£42,397
Deprivation54%52%52%
Average House Price£218,633£228,007£313,528

South Holland and The Deepings ranks #9 for "Leave", #46 for "Economic Right Position", #4 for "National Position" and #4 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

South Holland and The Deepings: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: South Holland and The Deepings

The new seat of South Holland and The Deepings is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: South Holland and The DeepingsActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
South HollandCrowland and Deeping St Nicholas4,940South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandDonington, Quadring and Gosberton5,630South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandFleet1,832South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandGedney1,802South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandHolbeach Hurn1,792South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandHolbeach Town5,653South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandLong Sutton5,982South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandMoulton, Weston and Cowbit5,494South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandPinchbeck and Surfleet5,324South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandSpalding Castle1,529South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandSpalding Monks House3,292South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandSpalding St John's3,192South Holland and The DeepingsCONReform
South HollandSpalding St Mary's3,168South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandSpalding St Paul's2,899South Holland and The DeepingsCONReform
South HollandSpalding Wygate3,698South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandSutton Bridge3,236South Holland and The DeepingsCONReform
South HollandThe Saints2,034South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South HollandWhaplode and Holbeach St John's3,433South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South KestevenDeeping St James5,729South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
South KestevenMarket and West Deeping5,318South Holland and The DeepingsCONCON
 Total75,977 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of South Holland and The Deepings if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Jun-2024 13:44, Py3L, sc105)