Stoke-on-Trent North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Stoke-on-Trent North: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Jonathan Gullis  (CON)
County/Area:Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:70,840
Turnout:59.0%
Implied Majority 2019:7,506

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON20,27048.5%
LAB15,06436.0%
Green1,8464.4%
OTH1,7784.3%
Reform1,7524.2%
LIB1,1162.7%
CON Majority5,20612.4%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
77%
LAB
23%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%

Stoke-on-Trent North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stoke-on-Trent North constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position3° Left3° Right
National Position17° Nat7° Nat
Social Position10° Con6° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %73%59%52%
British Identity23%29%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born94%89%87%
Good Education25%36%39%
Good Job37%48%51%
High SEC34%46%51%
Average Age48.748.648.3
ABC1 Class36%49%54%
Average House Price£136,986£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Stoke-on-Trent North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent North

The new seat of Stoke-on-Trent North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent NorthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,679Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONCON1,26056758759500732,128
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton9,382Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON3,2621,395158227240002305,512
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath3,678Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON95789742838700972,163
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central3,963Stoke-on-Trent NorthLABLAB9091,10247819800922,329
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park3,795Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON9299287090104001102,231
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne4,206Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON1,0961,0027395105001022,473
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford4,205Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON1,406709609510100992,470
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor7,669Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON2,3351,409136212213002014,506
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield4,084Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONLAB91999259195119001162,400
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft3,680Stoke-on-Trent NorthLABLAB8111,06241648700982,163
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall3,631Stoke-on-Trent NorthLABLAB85098156748600872,134
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove and Ravenscliffe7,116Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON2,1371,292112258197001864,182
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel and Mow Cop2,912Staffordshire MoorlandsCONCON1,1026386008600561,942
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel and Mow Cop1,859Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONCON61830528435000491,093
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke and Butt Lane6,981Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONLAB1,6791,786117160178001834,103
 Total70,840 CONCON20,27015,0651,1171,7521,846001,77941,829

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Stoke-on-Trent North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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