Strangford and Quoile: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Strangford and Quoile: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,252
Turnout:57.6%
Implied Majority 2019:5,920

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
DUP16,00239.0%
Alliance10,08224.6%
SDLP5,93714.5%
UUP3,5408.6%
SF2,8817.0%
OTH1,8594.5%
Green7151.7%
LIB Majority5,92014.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
100%
Alliance
0%
SDLP
0%
UUP
0%
SF
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Strangford and Quoile : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Strangford and Quoile constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %49%44%52%
British Identity50%40%29%
Good Health46%48%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job49%47%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age48.747.248.3
ABC1 Class48%46%53%
Average House Price£152,634£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Strangford and Quoile: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Strangford and Quoile

The new seat of Strangford and Quoile is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Strangford and QuoileActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,659Down SouthSDLPSDLP4872415714905460471,671
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,340Down SouthDUPDUP961602451910125024841
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy202Down SouthDUPDUP1422422801803127
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,090Down SouthSDLPSDLP4493618418505370561,942
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale3,041Down SouthSDLPSDLP6888918717805350551,912
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,871Down SouthSDLPSDLP13186020026802930531,805
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,990Down SouthSDLPSDLP6791818319104680531,880
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,708StrangfordDUPDUP1101033512641543071957
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,802StrangfordDUPDUP24816359540519670731,570
Ards and North DownBallygowan3,208StrangfordDUPDUP2612288448827801061,796
Ards and North DownBallywalter3,262StrangfordDUPDUP1611671,0603833280151,826
Ards and North DownCarrowdore2,134StrangfordDUPDUP1031066682733050101,195
Ards and North DownComber North2,778StrangfordDUPDUP2132078940318701071,557
Ards and North DownComber South2,844StrangfordDUPDUP191207065274970931,593
Ards and North DownComber West2,812StrangfordDUPDUP186196965304870881,574
Ards and North DownConway Square2,825StrangfordDUPDUP1202471854537901291,582
Ards and North DownCronstown3,280StrangfordDUPDUP1892582560747901351,837
Ards and North DownGlen3,283StrangfordDUPDUP1792580663154901351,839
Ards and North DownGregstown2,448StrangfordDUPDUP1481964542325701041,371
Ards and North DownKillinchy2,804StrangfordDUPDUP197206535745070691,570
Ards and North DownKircubbin3,139StrangfordDUPDUP6620399736559510181,759
Ards and North DownLoughries1,656StrangfordDUPDUP728951121924408927
Ards and North DownMovilla2,824StrangfordDUPDUP1222369756046901251,582
Ards and North DownPortaferry2,539StrangfordDUPDUP4318874931038770161,421
Ards and North DownPortavogie2,701StrangfordDUPDUP129146948263870131,514
Ards and North DownScrabo3,191StrangfordDUPDUP1982377860054901261,788
Ards and North DownWest Winds2,821StrangfordDUPDUP1362372852235901271,580
 Total71,252 DUPDUP3,5405,93716,00210,0827152,88101,85941,016

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Strangford and Quoile if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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