Sussex Weald: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Sussex Weald: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Nus Ghani  (CON)
County/Area:East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:69,515
Implied Turnout 2019:73.2%
Predicted Turnout:66.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON31,38761.7%33.0%
LIB8,85317.4%14.4%
LAB8,19116.1%30.7%
Green2,4354.8%8.4%
Reform00.0%12.1%
OTH00.0%1.4%
CON Majority22,53444.3%2.3%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in South East.

Chance of winning
CON
55%
LIB
3%
LAB
42%
Green
0%
Reform
1%
OTH
0%

Sussex Weald : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Sussex Weald constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position10° Nat3° Nat
Social Position5° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%52%52%
Average Age54.250.449.5
Good Education51%53%49%
Employed57%59%58%
Homeowner78%68%63%
Car owner90%84%77%
Married53%48%45%
Ethnic White96%86%83%
Christian52%50%50%
ABC1 Class62%62%56%
Gross Household Income£49,926£50,167£42,397
Deprivation46%48%52%
Average House Price£427,551£409,816£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Sussex Weald: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Sussex Weald

The new seat of Sussex Weald is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Sussex WealdActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
WealdenChiddingly, East Hoathly and Waldron2,754WealdenCONCON
WealdenCrowborough Central2,895WealdenCONLAB
WealdenCrowborough Jarvis Brook2,960WealdenCONLAB
WealdenCrowborough North2,866WealdenCONCON
WealdenCrowborough South East2,686WealdenCONLAB
WealdenCrowborough South West2,484WealdenCONCON
WealdenCrowborough St Johns2,741WealdenCONCON
WealdenFramfield and Cross-in-Hand993Bexhill and BattleCONCON
WealdenFramfield and Cross-in-Hand1,631WealdenCONCON
WealdenFrant and Wadhurst5,325WealdenCONCON
WealdenHadlow Down and Rotherfield2,623WealdenCONCON
WealdenHailsham Central2,485WealdenCONLAB
WealdenHailsham East3,116WealdenCONLAB
WealdenHailsham North2,579WealdenCONLAB
WealdenHailsham North West2,625WealdenCONLAB
WealdenHailsham South2,868WealdenCONLAB
WealdenHailsham West2,962WealdenCONLAB
WealdenHartfield2,855WealdenCONCON
WealdenHeathfield North3,093Bexhill and BattleCONCON
WealdenHeathfield South3,004Bexhill and BattleCONLAB
WealdenHellingly181Bexhill and BattleCONCON
WealdenHellingly3,002WealdenCONCON
WealdenHoram and Punnetts Town3,378Bexhill and BattleCONCON
WealdenHoram and Punnetts Town2,237WealdenCONCON
WealdenMayfield and Five Ashes566Bexhill and BattleCONCON
WealdenMayfield and Five Ashes2,151WealdenCONCON
WealdenWithyham2,460WealdenCONCON
 Total69,520 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Sussex Weald if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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