Swansea Central and North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Swansea Central and North: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Carolyn Harris  (LAB)
County/Area:West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:75,351
Turnout:61.8%
Implied Majority 2019:11,839

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB25,90055.6%
CON10,22622.0%
Reform3,1926.9%
Plaid2,5275.4%
Green2,2504.8%
LIB1,6563.6%
OTH7961.7%
LAB Majority15,67433.7%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
99%
CON
1%
Reform
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Swansea Central and North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Swansea Central and North constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position12° Left8° Left
National Position3° Glo
Social Position5° Lib2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity25%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born90%94%87%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC39%46%51%
Average Age45.449.548.3
ABC1 Class48%48%54%
Average House Price£147,301£194,381£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Swansea Central and North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Swansea Central and North

The new seat of Swansea Central and North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Swansea Central and NorthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaMawr1,423GowerCONCON4173672638391200171,024
SwanseaPontardulais4,903GowerLABLAB9941,8711092071401510603,532
SwanseaLlangyfelach3,801GowerCONLAB1,0691,23391851101030472,738
SwanseaPenllergaer2,526GowerLABLAB666845726975600321,819
SwanseaCwmbwrla5,555Swansea EastLABLAB5771,4863003152272120733,190
SwanseaLandore4,656Swansea EastLABLAB4361,617522471421380432,675
SwanseaLlangyfelach104Swansea EastCONCON242215330159
SwanseaMorriston11,961Swansea EastLABLAB1,8513,38213356235348201096,872
SwanseaMynyddbach6,546Swansea EastLABLAB1,0001,970633221841630593,761
SwanseaPenderry7,309Swansea EastLABLAB6312,591683613001850654,201
SwanseaUplands10,721Swansea WestLABLAB1,3103,90140940831025901336,730
SwanseaCastle10,204Swansea WestLABLAB9064,03525732026650601146,404
SwanseaLandore108Swansea WestLABLAB94624330168
SwanseaTownhill5,534Swansea WestLABLAB3352,53573249981420423,474
 Total75,351 LABLAB10,22525,9011,6563,1922,2502,527079646,547

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Swansea Central and North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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