Swindon North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Swindon North: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Justin Tomlinson  (CON)
County/Area:Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:72,058
Implied Turnout 2019:66.9%
Predicted Turnout:66.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON28,48159.1%25.6%
LAB14,29729.7%44.1%
LIB3,8137.9%4.3%
Green1,5833.3%5.8%
Reform00.0%19.3%
OTH00.0%0.8%
CON Majority14,18429.4%18.5%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in South West.

Chance of winning
CON
10%
LAB
88%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Reform
2%
OTH
0%

Swindon North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Swindon North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position8° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %57%53%52%
Average Age48.851.649.5
Good Education44%52%49%
Employed64%57%58%
Homeowner69%68%63%
Car owner84%84%77%
Married49%47%45%
Ethnic White87%93%83%
Christian48%49%50%
ABC1 Class55%58%56%
Gross Household Income£44,397£41,731£42,397
Deprivation49%50%52%
Average House Price£251,782£311,706£313,528

Swindon North ranks #223 for "Leave", #186 for "Economic Right Position", #207 for "National Position" and #274 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Swindon North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Swindon North

The new seat of Swindon North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Swindon NorthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
SwindonGorse Hill and Pinehurst8,320Swindon NorthCONLAB
SwindonPriory Vale8,279Swindon NorthCONLAB
SwindonRodbourne Cheney8,722Swindon NorthCONLAB
SwindonSt Andrews11,029Swindon NorthCONLAB
SwindonSt Margaret and South Marston8,851Swindon NorthCONLAB
SwindonBlunsdon and Highworth8,938Swindon NorthCONLAB
SwindonHaydon Wick8,816Swindon NorthCONLAB
SwindonPenhill and Upper Stratton9,103Swindon NorthCONLAB
 Total72,058 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Swindon North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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