Thornbury and Yate: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Thornbury and Yate: Overview

Prediction: LIB

Implied MP at 2019:Luke Hall  (CON)
County/Area:Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:74,719
Implied Turnout 2019:75.0%
Predicted Turnout:73.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON32,38757.8%31.8%
LIB17,95432.1%45.4%
LAB5,3859.6%9.0%
Green2240.4%2.4%
OTH590.1%0.0%
Reform00.0%11.4%
CON Majority14,43325.8%13.5%
LIB Maj

See overview of other seats in South West.

Chance of winning
CON
19%
LIB
81%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Thornbury and Yate : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Thornbury and Yate constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2024LIBCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right8° Right
National Position3° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Lib
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %50%53%52%
Average Age52.351.649.5
Good Education51%52%49%
Employed60%57%58%
Homeowner80%68%63%
Car owner91%84%77%
Married52%47%45%
Ethnic White96%93%83%
Christian51%49%50%
ABC1 Class64%58%56%
Gross Household Income£46,787£41,731£42,397
Deprivation46%50%52%
Average House Price£328,550£311,706£313,528

Thornbury and Yate ranks #397 for "Leave", #123 for "Economic Right Position", #325 for "National Position" and #457 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Thornbury and Yate: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Thornbury and Yate

The new seat of Thornbury and Yate is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Thornbury and YateActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
South GloucestershireBoyd Valley315KingswoodCONLIB
South GloucestershireBoyd Valley6,923Thornbury and YateCONLIB
South GloucestershireCharfield3,488Thornbury and YateCONLIB
South GloucestershireChipping Sodbury and Cotswold Edge7,926Thornbury and YateCONLIB
South GloucestershireDodington7,644Thornbury and YateCONLIB
South GloucestershireFrampton Cotterell10,382Thornbury and YateCONLIB
South GloucestershirePilning and Severn Beach3,851Filton and Bradley StokeCONCON
South GloucestershireSevern Vale1,694Filton and Bradley StokeCONCON
South GloucestershireSevern Vale6,188Thornbury and YateCONCON
South GloucestershireThornbury10,601Thornbury and YateCONLIB
South GloucestershireYate Central6,624Thornbury and YateCONLIB
South GloucestershireYate North9,083Thornbury and YateCONLIB
 Total74,719 CONLIB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Thornbury and Yate if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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