Uxbridge and South Ruislip: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Boris Johnson  (CON)
County/Area:Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:74,828
Turnout:68.7%
Implied Majority 2019:8,758

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB21,33041.5%
CON19,53938.0%
LIB4,7609.3%
Green3,1186.1%
OTH1,5042.9%
Reform1,1452.2%
LAB Majority1,7913.5%

See overview of other seats in London.

Chance of winning
LAB
57%
CON
42%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Uxbridge and South Ruislip : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position14° Right2° Left
National Position2° Nat16° Glo
Social Position3° Con5° Lib
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %57%40%52%
British Identity32%38%29%
Good Health50%51%48%
UK Born76%63%87%
Good Education44%48%39%
Good Job57%61%51%
High SEC55%55%51%
Average Age44.643.948.3
ABC1 Class61%62%54%
Average House Price£470,636£630,920£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Uxbridge and South Ruislip

The new seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Uxbridge and South RuislipActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HillingdonColham and Cowley24Hayes and HarlingtonLABLAB5711100015
HillingdonColham and Cowley11,360Uxbridge and South RuislipLABLAB2,6113,531637173468002057,625
HillingdonHillingdon East10,418Uxbridge and South RuislipLABLAB2,7053,082556167392002087,110
HillingdonHillingdon West5,659Uxbridge and South RuislipCONCON1,5681,55932587232001093,880
HillingdonIckenham and South Harefield11,301Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerCONCON3,5562,5771,087174519002738,186
HillingdonIckenham and South Harefield41Uxbridge and South RuislipCONCON131041200131
HillingdonRuislip Manor183Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerCONCON54441337004125
HillingdonRuislip Manor7,474Uxbridge and South RuislipCONCON2,2301,936471119285001585,199
HillingdonSouth Ruislip11,370Uxbridge and South RuislipLABLAB3,0443,211635183443002427,758
HillingdonUxbridge10,593Uxbridge and South RuislipLABLAB2,3623,352684145496001867,225
HillingdonYiewsley8Hayes and HarlingtonCONLAB220000004
HillingdonYiewsley6,397Uxbridge and South RuislipLABLAB1,3882,01834795274001184,240
 Total74,828 CONLAB19,53821,3294,7601,1483,119001,50451,398

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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