Uxbridge and South Ruislip: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Boris Johnson  (CON)
County/Area:Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:74,828
Implied Turnout 2019:69.1%
Predicted Turnout:67.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON27,32252.8%27.7%
LAB18,55135.9%47.3%
LIB3,8027.4%3.7%
Green1,3172.5%6.2%
OTH7251.4%2.3%
Reform00.0%12.9%
CON Majority8,77117.0%19.7%
LAB Maj

Result shown is the implied general election result from 2019, before the resignation of Boris Johnson. Steve Tuckwell (Con) held the old seat in a by-election on 20 July 2023.

See overview of other seats in London.

Chance of winning
CON
9%
LAB
91%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Uxbridge and South Ruislip : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Economic Position14° Right2° Left
National Position2° Nat16° Glo
Social Position3° Con5° Lib
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %57%40%52%
Average Age46.245.349.5
Good Education56%60%49%
Employed60%61%58%
Homeowner62%48%63%
Car owner79%59%77%
Married46%40%45%
Ethnic White57%54%83%
Christian46%44%50%
ABC1 Class61%59%56%
Gross Household Income£54,824£53,561£42,397
Deprivation51%52%52%
Average House Price£470,636£631,346£313,528

Uxbridge and South Ruislip ranks #228 for "Leave", #82 for "Economic Right Position", #351 for "National Position" and #300 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Uxbridge and South Ruislip

The new seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Uxbridge and South RuislipActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
HillingdonColham and Cowley37Hayes and HarlingtonCONLAB
HillingdonColham and Cowley11,341Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLAB
HillingdonHillingdon East10,413Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLAB
HillingdonHillingdon West5,656Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLAB
HillingdonIckenham and South Harefield11,334Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerCONLAB
HillingdonIckenham and South Harefield36Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLAB
HillingdonRuislip Manor223Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerCONLAB
HillingdonRuislip Manor7,431Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLAB
HillingdonSouth Ruislip11,364Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLAB
HillingdonUxbridge10,588Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLAB
HillingdonYiewsley27Hayes and HarlingtonCONLAB
HillingdonYiewsley6,376Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLAB
 Total74,826 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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