Welwyn Hatfield: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Welwyn Hatfield: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Grant Shapps  (CON)
County/Area:Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Implied Turnout 2019:69.5%
Predicted Turnout:69.3%

CON Majority10,79620.8%20.7%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Chance of winning

Welwyn Hatfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Welwyn Hatfield constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right9° Right
National Position1° Nat7° Nat
Social Position1° Lib3° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %53%56%52%
Average Age47.150.549.5
Good Education57%48%49%
Car owner82%84%77%
Ethnic White78%86%83%
ABC1 Class62%58%56%
Gross Household Income£47,890£45,686£42,397
Average House Price£467,897£352,365£313,528

Welwyn Hatfield ranks #339 for "Leave", #215 for "Economic Right Position", #374 for "National Position" and #462 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Welwyn Hatfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Welwyn Hatfield

The new seat of Welwyn Hatfield is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Welwyn HatfieldActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
Welwyn HatfieldBrookmans Park and Little Heath5,100Welwyn HatfieldCONCON
Welwyn HatfieldHaldens4,850Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldHandside5,357Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield Central4,765Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield East5,061Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield South West5,246Welwyn HatfieldLABLAB
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield Villages5,469Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldHollybush4,746Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldHowlands5,206Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldPanshanger4,386Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldPeartree4,766Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldSherrards4,432Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldWelham Green and Hatfield South5,123Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldWelwyn East5,067Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
Welwyn HatfieldWelwyn West4,931Welwyn HatfieldCONLAB
 Total74,505 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Welwyn Hatfield if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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