Winchester: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Winchester: Overview

Prediction: LIB

Implied MP at 2019:Steve Brine  (CON)
County/Area:Hampshire (South East)
Implied Turnout 2019:76.6%
Predicted Turnout:72.5%

CON Majority6,40010.8%7.5%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in South East.

Chance of winning

Winchester : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Winchester constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position17° Right11° Right
National Position8° Glo3° Nat
Social Position5° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %39%52%52%
Average Age51.350.449.5
Good Education65%53%49%
Car owner86%84%77%
Ethnic White93%86%83%
ABC1 Class74%62%56%
Gross Household Income£56,071£50,167£42,397
Average House Price£587,090£409,816£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Winchester: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Winchester

The new seat of Winchester is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: WinchesterActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
WinchesterAlresford and Itchen Valley350Meon ValleyCONLIB
WinchesterAlresford and Itchen Valley6,612WinchesterCONLIB
WinchesterBadger Farm and Oliver's Battery6,431WinchesterCONLIB
WinchesterBishop's Waltham6,251Meon ValleyCONCON
WinchesterCentral Meon Valley7,608Meon ValleyCONCON
WinchesterColden Common and Twyford4,424WinchesterCONLIB
WinchesterSt Barnabas6,681WinchesterLIBLIB
WinchesterSt Bartholomew6,388WinchesterLIBLIB
WinchesterSt Luke4,018WinchesterCONLIB
WinchesterSt Michael6,458WinchesterLIBLIB
WinchesterSt Paul6,772WinchesterLIBLIB
WinchesterThe Worthys4,848WinchesterLIBLIB
WinchesterUpper Meon Valley4,425Meon ValleyCONCON
WinchesterUpper Meon Valley95WinchesterCONCON
WinchesterWonston and Micheldever5,949WinchesterCONCON
 Total77,310 CONLIB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Winchester if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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