Worsley and Eccles: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Worsley and Eccles: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Barbara Keeley  (LAB)
County/Area:Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:77,299
Turnout:60.1%
Implied Majority 2019:3,525

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB21,65546.6%
CON15,39033.1%
Green2,8376.1%
Reform2,5235.4%
LIB2,0864.5%
OTH1,9794.3%
LAB Majority6,26513.5%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
LAB
80%
CON
20%
Green
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Worsley and Eccles : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Worsley and Eccles constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left4° Left
National Position4° Nat1° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%54%52%
British Identity24%28%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born93%92%87%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job52%49%51%
High SEC50%48%51%
Average Age48.348.548.3
ABC1 Class52%50%54%
Average House Price£225,294£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Worsley and Eccles: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Worsley and Eccles

The new seat of Worsley and Eccles is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Worsley and EcclesActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiganAstley Mosley Common9,898LeighCONCON2,5172,499188303208002926,007
SalfordBarton and Winton10,004Worsley and Eccles SouthLABLAB1,4873,223251321418002445,944
SalfordBoothstown and Ellenbrook9,851Worsley and Eccles SouthCONCON3,0151,522385285398002505,855
SalfordCadishead and Lower Irlam9,481Worsley and Eccles SouthLABLAB1,6252,985213300284002285,635
SalfordEccles9,753Salford and EcclesLABLAB1,4543,158273361506002556,007
SalfordEccles800Worsley and Eccles SouthLABLAB1362292725390020476
SalfordHigher Irlam and Peel Green9,472Worsley and Eccles SouthLABLAB1,4873,111194312298002285,630
SalfordSwinton and Wardley9,024Salford and EcclesLABLAB1,2893,184204336314002315,558
SalfordWorsley and Westwood Park9,016Worsley and Eccles SouthCONCON2,3791,743351280373002325,358
 Total77,299 LABLAB15,38921,6542,0862,5232,838001,98046,470

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Worsley and Eccles if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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