Ynys Mon: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Ynys Mon: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Virginia Crosbie  (CON)
County/Area:Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate:51,927
Turnout:70.4%
Implied Majority 2019:1,969

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB11,53331.6%
CON10,62229.1%
Plaid10,41928.5%
Reform2,3026.3%
Green1,1743.2%
OTH5031.4%
LAB Majority9112.5%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
45%
CON
32%
Plaid
24%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ynys Mon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ynys Mon constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position16° Left8° Left
National Position
Social Position2° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity25%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born97%94%87%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age52.349.548.3
ABC1 Class45%48%54%
Average House Price£218,492£194,381£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ynys Mon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Ynys Mon

The new seat of Ynys Mon is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Ynys MonActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of AngleseyAethwy5,127Ynys MonPlaidPlaid9271,00402031161,3110503,611
Isle of AngleseyBro Aberffraw2,995Ynys MonCONCON6736010133686050292,109
Isle of AngleseyBro Rhosyr3,882Ynys MonCONCON9327770179887200382,734
Isle of AngleseyCaergybi5,453Ynys MonLABLAB8351,88202451236990533,837
Isle of AngleseyCanolbarth Môn6,476Ynys MonPlaidPlaid1,1511,23402761461,6890634,559
Isle of AngleseyLlifôn4,066Ynys MonCONCON1,0699530210924980392,861
Isle of AngleseyLligwy4,765Ynys MonCONPlaid1,03680501961081,1640463,355
Isle of AngleseySeiriol4,607Ynys MonPlaidPlaid94278001801041,1910453,242
Isle of AngleseyTalybolion4,717Ynys MonPlaidPlaid90883602001071,2240463,321
Isle of AngleseyTwrcelyn5,446Ynys MonCONCON1,3331,29302801237520533,834
Isle of AngleseyYnys Gybi4,393Ynys MonLABLAB8171,3680200995660433,093
 Total51,927 CONLAB10,62311,53302,3021,17410,419050536,556

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Ynys Mon if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (15-Oct-2021 13:04, Py3L, sc1035)