Guildford: Seat Details

Your postcode GU2 4ED lookup

PostcodeGU2 4ED
DistrictGuildford
WardSt Nicolas
ConstituencyGuildford
CountySurrey
MP at 2024Zöe Franklin
PartyLiberal Democrat
Predicted WinnerLiberal Democrat

Guildford: Overview

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:Zöe Franklin  (LIB)
County/Area:Surrey (South East)
Electorate:70,734
Turnout:68.3%

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Go

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
LIB22,93747.5%37.9%
CON14,50830.0%22.9%
Reform4,3959.1%20.8%
LAB3,9318.1%10.6%
Green2,2684.7%7.0%
OTH2550.5%0.8%
LIB Majority8,42917.5%15.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LIB
82%
CON
10%
Reform
7%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Guildford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Guildford constituency, the 'South East' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00155304) around the postcode GU2 4ED, and the St Nicolas ward of Guildford district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2024LIBLIBLIBCONLAB
Party Winner 2019LIBLIBCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCONCONCON
Economic Position11° RightRight18° Right11° Right
National Position16° GloVery Global10° Glo3° Nat
Social Position9° LibVery Lib7° Lib1° Con
TribeKind YuppiesKind YuppiesKind Yuppies
EU Leave %33%Very Remain41%52%52%
Average Age53.049.047.250.449.6
Good Education68%76%67%53%51%
Employed57%57%57%59%57%
Homeowner60%61%64%68%64%
Car owner88%75%84%84%77%
Married41%45%45%48%45%
Ethnic White88%87%84%86%83%
Christian50%49%51%50%48%
ABC1 Class74%84%74%62%56%
Gross Household Income£50,377£59,760£58,648£50,167£42,397
Deprivation29%36%42%48%52%
Average House Pricen/a£675,589£599,206£409,816£313,667

Guildford ranks #535 for "Leave", #13 for "Economic Right Position", #519 for "National Position" and #540 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Guildford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Guildford

This table shows the recent and predicted future general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Guildford. These are not local election results, which will be different.

GuildfordActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred GE
Winner
GuildfordBellfields and Slyfield4,274LIBLIB
GuildfordBurpham4,754LIBLIB
GuildfordCastle7,006LIBLIB
GuildfordClandon and Horsley6,838LIBLIB
GuildfordEffingham1,884LIBLIB
GuildfordMerrow6,887LIBLIB
GuildfordOnslow5,430LIBLIB
GuildfordSend and Lovelace5,254LIBLIB
GuildfordSt Nicolas2,166LIBLIB
GuildfordStoke5,518LIBLIB
GuildfordStoughton North4,150LIBLIB
GuildfordStoughton South4,314LIBLIB
GuildfordWestborough6,017LIBLIB
GuildfordWorplesdon6,243CONLIB
 Total70,735LIBLIB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2025.


© 2025 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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