Ashfield: Seat Details

Your postcode NG17 4FU lookup

PostcodeNG17 4FU
DistrictAshfield
WardCentral and New Cross
Current ConstituencyAshfield
Proposed ConstituencyAshfield
CountyNottinghamshire
MP at 2019Lee Anderson
PartyConservative
Predicted WinnerMinor

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Ashfield, or click here to find another new seat.

Ashfield: Overview

Prediction: MIN gain from CON

MP at 2019:Lee Anderson  (CON)
County/Area:Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:78,204
Turnout:62.6%

The postcode (NG17 4FU) is in the proposed new 2023 constituency of Ashfield. Click 'Proposed Constituency' link in table for full details.

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Go

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON19,23139.3%10.3%
MIN13,49827.6%29.5%
LAB11,97124.4%28.6%
Reform2,5015.1%23.3%
LIB1,1052.3%4.3%
Green6741.4%4.0%
CON Majority5,73311.7%0.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
2%
MIN
17%
LAB
32%
Reform
48%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Ashfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ashfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00142508) around the postcode NG17 4FU, and the Central and New Cross ward of Ashfield district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABLABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABLABCONCON
Economic Position12° LeftLeft6° Left4° Right
National Position9° NatVery Nat16° Nat7° Nat
Social PositionModerate6° Con4° Con
TribeSomewheresSomewheresSomewheres
EU Leave %73%Very Leave71%59%52%
Average Age42.847.551.350.149.5
Good Education33%34%38%47%49%
Employed63%57%55%57%58%
Homeowner39%50%69%67%63%
Car owner52%67%80%81%77%
Married34%34%45%46%45%
Ethnic White91%94%96%86%83%
Christian37%40%45%48%50%
ABC1 Class33%35%44%53%56%
Gross Household Income£29,757£29,719£35,257£40,483£42,397
Deprivation60%62%58%52%52%
Average House Pricen/a£135,383£158,302£228,007£313,528

Ashfield ranks #14 for "Leave", #441 for "Economic Right Position", #28 for "National Position" and #155 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ashfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ashfield

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ashfield.

AshfieldActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
AshfieldAbbey Hill2,323CONLAB
AshfieldAnnesley and Kirkby Woodhouse5,825CONMIN
AshfieldAshfields2,934CONMIN
AshfieldCarsic2,696CONLAB
AshfieldCentral and New Cross5,318CONLAB
AshfieldHuthwaite and Brierley5,558CONMIN
AshfieldJacksdale2,585CONMIN
AshfieldKingsway2,424CONMIN
AshfieldKirkby Cross and Portland3,120CONMIN
AshfieldLarwood2,989CONMIN
AshfieldLeamington2,743CONLAB
AshfieldSelston5,005CONMIN
AshfieldSkegby5,197CONMIN
AshfieldSt Mary's2,825CONMIN
AshfieldStanton Hill and Teversal2,461CONMIN
AshfieldSummit5,053CONLAB
AshfieldSutton Junction and Harlow Wood2,739CONMIN
AshfieldThe Dales2,355CONMIN
AshfieldUnderwood2,680CONMIN
BroxtoweBrinsley1,902CONLAB
BroxtoweEastwood Hall1,964CONLAB
BroxtoweEastwood Hilltop3,951LABLAB
BroxtoweEastwood St Mary's3,480LABLAB
BroxtoweGreasley77CONLAB
 Total78,204CONMIN

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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